Africa Economics Weekly Moody’s holds fire, SA institutional worries grow, weak PMIs Moody’s Ratings delayed the review scheduled for last Friday, leaving South Africa’s rating unchanged. Two new developments this week added to concerns about the country’s fiscal health. That said, we... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Mixed year for agricultural production Rebounds in agricultural production will help to support economic accelerations this year in Kenya and South Africa. Elsewhere in Southern & Eastern Africa, however, the sector will drag on growth –... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA debt back under review, central banks’ dovish tilt The upcoming Moody’s review of South African debt has raised fresh concerns about a sell-off in the country’s bond market. But we think that these fears are overdone. Meanwhile, central bank meetings... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Grim news across the region Figures released over the past month added to concerns that Africa’s largest three economies stumbled in early 2019. There was, admittedly, some good news from Kenya, where judges struck down a cap on... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Slow growth in SA, budget quandaries in Nigeria South African retail sales figures released this week provided another sign of economic weakness, and worsening electricity problems will add to economic headwinds. A new budget report has raised... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa slowdown, SARB, no word from Buhari Data published this week showed continued weakness in South Africa’s economy at the start of the year which, coming alongside soft inflation, may bring interest rate cuts onto the table sooner than we... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA: Investment slump, power prices prolong Eskom pain Growth figures out this week showed that South Africa’s economy slowed at the end of last year. But we think that improved confidence will boost investment this year, causing growth to pick up. The... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria set for policy stability, renewed risk of Kenya cut Markets surged when Muhammadu Buhari was elected president of Nigeria in 2015, but they slumped following his re-election this week. This is just another sign that investors have soured on the... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Rates in Egypt and Tunisia head in opposite directions Interest rate moves in Egypt and Tunisia this month highlighted the important role that balance of payments positions are playing in monetary policy decisions. In Egypt, tighter fiscal policy and the... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria: Buhari win sets stage for slow growth Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari’s clear win in last weekend’s election will almost certainly result in the continuation of his interventionist economic policies, which are widely seen to have... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi to extend output cuts, more protests in Algeria Fresh hints from Saudi Arabia that it will extend its oil production cuts into the second half of this year support our view that economic growth in the Kingdom will be weaker than most anticipate... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria actually goes to the polls, South Africa budget History suggests that, if Nigeria’s delayed election on Saturday passes peacefully, the stock market is likely to see a temporary bounce. But over a longer time horizon, global factors are likely to... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Further rate hikes likely in Tunisia, the Qatar blockade The Tunisian central bank hiked its key policy rate aggressively this week and we think that further steps will be needed to correct the country’s large economic imbalances. Meanwhile, the UAE has... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why we’re sticking to our guns on EM equities EM equities’ flying start to the year has continued this week, but we are sticking to our view that they will fall over 2019 as a whole, as the darkening outlook for the global economy takes its toll... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus The implications of slower global growth for EM assets In this Focus, we argue that the bright start to 2019 for most EM assets will not last, as growth in both emerging and advanced economies slows markedly in the next couple of years. Within the EM... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria goes to the polls, South Africa awaits budget speech Nigeria’s presidential election on Saturday offers a choice between two clearly distinct policy options. The result will be close, with the winner probably announced on Monday. Elsewhere, South Africa... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
