Emerging Markets Economics Update Will fiscal policy support EMs in 2019? China’s government is loosening fiscal policy to cushion the slowdown and it looks like a handful of economies, mainly in East Asia, will also loosen the purse strings this year. However, more EMs are... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Where are the risks greatest in EM equity markets? We think that EM Asian equities are set for more pain in 2019 despite their generally positive start to the year, and suspect that they will again be among the worst performers in the MSCI EM Index... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Sovereign debt risks building 2018 was marked by currency crises in Turkey and Argentina, but the risks of large currency adjustments elsewhere in the emerging world have diminished. Meanwhile, sovereign debt risks appear to be... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Robust growth in South Africa, coup foiled in Gabon South African output data released this week suggested that the economy slowed a touch in Q4. Even so, growth was still pretty strong by recent standards. Elsewhere, a coup attempt in Gabon revived... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanese debt restructuring, Saudi’s dollar bond sale Reports that Lebanon’s government is putting together a debt restructuring plan suggest that some of the risks we’ve previously warned about are crystallising. And there’s a good chance that this... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt CPI (Dec.) & Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.) The sharp fall in Egyptian inflation in December increases the chances that policymakers start to cut interest rates again at the next MPC meeting in February. If inflation falls a bit further this... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Strong growth in Kenya, MTN settles in Nigeria Figures released in Kenya this week have strengthened our view that the country will be one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies of 2019. Meanwhile, the settlement between South African telecoms... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Regional growth to slow in 2019, Egypt rate cuts The raft of GDP figures released over the past week showed that, in aggregate, the MENA economies strengthened in Q3 of last year. But we think that a fresh slowdown is on the cards in 2019. Meanwhile... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs point to further slowdown The fall in the EM manufacturing PMI last month was fairly broad-based and supports our view that growth in the emerging world as a whole will slow this year. 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Buhari’s budget, Nigerian bank consolidation, Ghana GDP Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari laid out his 2019 budget proposal this week, emphasising that he plans to keep key policies unchanged if he is re-elected in February. A big bank merger in the... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi’s optimistic oil price forecasts, Morocco’s IMF deal Saudi Arabia’s 2019 budget was premised on optimistic assumptions regarding oil prices that are likely to be disappointed. If we’re right, fiscal austerity will probably return in mid-2019 and there’s... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Uneven recovery hints at weak 2019 Figures released this month showed that Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest two economies remained weak in late 2018, but that activity picked up faster elsewhere in the region. These readings strengthen our... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EMs set for weaker growth in 2019 EM GDP growth lost momentum over the second half of 2018 and we expect this to continue next year as growth in Emerging Asia, notably China, and Emerging Europe weakens. 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A guide to elections in 2019 In this Update we discuss the key implications of EM elections scheduled for 2019. Votes in Ukraine and Argentina – where opposition candidates could put IMF deals at risk – probably pose the greatest... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM equities not likely to bounce back in 2019 EM equities have had a torrid year, and we doubt that things will get any better in 2019. Indeed, we forecast that the MSCI EM Index will end next year around 10% below its current level, a similarly... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Ending 2018 on a weaker footing EM growth has slowed over the course of 2018 and our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate growth fell to its weakest pace in two years in Q4, at around 4.0%. 2019 is unlikely to be better. We expect... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
