Africa Economics Focus China & Africa: Setting the record straight Perceptions of the economic ties between China and Africa are often based on inaccurate assumptions. In this Focus we debunk three key myths. The China-Africa relationship is not as state-driven, as... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing stabilises at the start of Q2 April’s PMIs suggest that, having slowed in Q1, growth in EM manufacturing steadied at the start of Q2. But the surveys brought further evidence that EM export growth may weaken in the coming months. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Public debt fears concentrated in smaller frontiers Public debt positions across the emerging world have come under scrutiny recently and the risks appear to be concentrated in frontier markets. In aggregate, the debt-to-GDP ratio of frontier... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Commodity prices: Africa’s winners and losers Commodities make up a large part of Africa’s exports but the degree of dependence and product diversification varies across the region. While the value of net exports of energy producers, including... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Mixed month for markets, but rand suffers The rand’s recent rally seems well and truly over; it weakened against the US dollar by even more than EM peers this month. We expect that the currency will continue to fall late this year. 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Winds of change reach Ethiopia Ethiopia’s ruling party appointed a new prime minister on 2nd April, stabilising a situation that had been in flux since the previous incumbent’s resignation in February. Abiy Ahmed inherits a divided... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SA: Minimum wage shows difficulty of economic reform South African policymakers are being forced to delay the introduction of a long-planned national minimum wage bill. Overall, we think that the bill is probably a positive step for the country. The... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Economic recovery will peak this year We expect that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to accelerate in 2018. This recovery will be driven largely by South Africa and Nigeria, where growth is set to pick up by more than... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Growth: Beware talk of an “African” recovery Many analysts now talk of a recovery ‘in Africa’; but faster regional growth this year will be almost entirely due to accelerations in Nigeria & South Africa. Given weak economic links within Africa... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. African ratings reprieve provides boost for bonds March was a mixed months for African markets. While most currencies performed well, dollar bonds sold off. Most local markets did, however, gain over Q1 as a whole. 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier currencies come under pressure Most major Emerging Market currencies have fared well over the past month even as concerns of a global trade war have mounted, but a number of those in Frontier Markets have struggled. Indeed, only... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Recovery gathering momentum Recently-released GDP figures show that growth strengthened in both Nigeria and South Africa in Q4. The pickup in growth in Nigeria was mostly due to stronger activity in the non-oil sector, which... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African Trade: The devil is in the details Political leaders from across Africa have gathered in Rwanda to sign an ambitious new trade pact. The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) has been billed as the first step to creating a... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Africa: Debt positions fragile in face of economic shocks Africa’s public debt problems are currently concentrated in Mozambique, Angola, Ghana, Nigeria, & Zambia. Elsewhere, however, it would only take a small shock to prompt a crisis (Kenya & South Africa... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Trump, trade and the protectionist threat: a primer Fears are growing that recent developments in the US, including the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminium as well as the apparent ascendancy of economic nationalists within the White House, may... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: US equity correction outweighs political drama The market impact of February’s political drama in South Africa was limited; investors had already priced in Jacob Zuma’s February 14th resignation. Instead, moves in markets across Africa were mostly... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
