Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4 2017) The weaker-than-expected pick-up in Nigerian GDP growth in Q4, to 1.9% y/y, masked an encouraging improvement in the non-oil sector. There are signs that the recovery gathered pace at the start of... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Political drama overshadows gradual recovery Attention over the past month has focused on political developments in South Africa and (to an admittedly lesser extent) Ethiopia. After refusing to heed repeated calls to reign, South African... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Why Africa won’t be the next EM powerhouse African economies entered a cyclical upturn last year, and we think that they will outperform consensus expectations in 2018 and 2019. But their long-term outlook is less rosy than that of many... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Painful budget prioritises smaller deficit South Africa’s budget suggests that President Cyril Ramaphosa is putting a renewed emphasis on narrowing the fiscal deficit. We think that the shortfall will narrow in the short term, but that the... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rebound is underway Nigeria’s economy finally exited recession in the middle of 2017, but growth remained very weak. The latest figures, however, suggest that the economy accelerated going into the start of this year... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: What comes next for Jacob Zuma? Party leaders’ formal call for President Jacob Zuma to resign will further expedite his replacement by Cyril Ramaphosa. But the precise timing and nature of his removal from office remains unclear. In... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Mining slumps, but manufacturing picks up South African output data for December were mixed, but we think that the economy held up well in Q4. Strong manufacturing growth probably offset the weaker performance of the mining sector. 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Angola grabs the headlines in early 2018 Angola’s recent devaluation has not gone far enough, and we expect that the kwanza will fall further this year. Currencies elsewhere in Africa had a pretty strong start to the year. 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Getting back into gear We expect that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to accelerate in 2018. This recovery will be driven largely by faster growth in South Africa and Nigeria, the region’s two biggest... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angola: Prepare for turbulence Since his election late last year, President João Lourenço has embarked on a surprisingly bold programme of economic reforms. In this Watch we argue that President Lourenço’s reform plans will help to... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Some positive news in late 2017 Most of the data released over the past month suggested that African economies strengthened in late 2017. Q3 GDP figures showed faster growth in Ghana, Zambia, Botswana, and Rwanda – with growth in... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Cuts on the cards in Kenya, Ghana, & Nigeria Interest rates were kept hold today in Kenya & Ghana, and we expect that both will see rate cuts in 2018. Nigeria’s MPC was unable to meet, but policy there will probably also loosen later this year. 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy remained strong in Q4 Recent activity data – particularly today’s November retail sales figures – suggest South African growth stayed robust in Q4. This supports our above-consensus view that growth will remain at 2.0% in... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec.) Nigerian inflation slipped to a 15-month low in December. We expect that policymakers will keep rates on hold in January and March, but will cut rates by 100bp in May as inflation eases further. 16th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: SARB nationalisation would have little effect The mooted “nationalisation” of South Africa’s Reserve Bank has prompted significant opposition. But the move – which would bring the Bank in line with global norms – would have little economic effect... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: ANC drama caps good year for African assets The election of Cyril Ramaphosa as head of the ANC this week sparked a rally in South African financial markets. Over the region as a whole, Sub-Saharan African assets performed well in 2017 with... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
