Africa Economics Update ANC: Ramaphosa rand rally reverses After rallying yesterday ahead of the election of Cyril Ramaphosa as head of the ANC, the rand fell back this morning as investors appreciated the depth of divisions within the ruling party. The... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack A mixed end to 2017 This year saw a tepid, stop-start economic recovery across most of Africa, and figures from recent months suggest that 2017 ended with a whimper rather than a bang. Growth seems to have picked up... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q3) The narrowing of South Africa’s current account deficit in Q3 (which slipped to 2.3% of GDP) and the weakening of inflation should ease pressure on the South African Reserve Bank to tighten policy. 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Mining production Mining production rose by a stronger-than-expected 5.2% y/y in October. This provides the first solid sign that the economy retained momentum as it entered the fourth quarter. 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: A guide to the ANC national conference Long simmering political tensions within the African National Congress (ANC) will come to the boil next week when the ruling party meets for its national conference. But while the summit has cast a... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI The small pick-up in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI last month, coming on the back of an improvement in October, suggests that the sector’s slump eased further in Q4. 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa downgrade: More heat than light South Africa’s latest ratings downgrade wasn’t as bad as the markets had expected; the rand rallied after the country’s local currency debt was cut to junk by S&P but left as investment grade by Moody... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Bad news in Nigeria and South Africa November was a pretty bad month for both Nigeria and South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa’s two largest economies. Economic growth in Nigeria remained very weak in Q3, and entirely dependent on the recent... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: downgrade largely priced in Fears that bond yields could jump sharply and that the rand could sell off if Moody’s and S&P cut South Africa’s local currency debt to junk status later today look a bit overblown. Much of the bad... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SARB takes further easing off the table The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) made it pretty clear at today’s MPC meeting, at which the policy rate was left unchanged at 6.75%, that any additional easing is off the cards. As a result, we... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Oct.) The decline in South African headline inflation last month, to 4.8% y/y, and softening core price pressures may temper expectations in the market for interest rate hikes in the next few months. But... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q3 2017) The weaker-than-expected pick-up in Nigerian GDP growth in Q3, to 1.4% y/y, was driven entirely by a rebound in oil production, while the non-oil sector weakened. We don’t think these data will affect... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update How important is Zimbabwe’s economy? The military takeover in Zimbabwe last night has drawn attention to the escalating political crisis in the country. In this Update, we look at the economic angle and explain why the latest... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s recovery continued in Q3 South African activity data for September were disappointing, but it looks like the economy expanded by a decent 2% q/q saar over Q3 as a whole. More timely figures for October suggest that the... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct.) Last month’s Nigerian inflation reading of 15.9% y/y means that, although the central bank has signalled that it intends to cut interest rates, this is unlikely to come at next week’s meeting. We... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa’s business environment: A look behind the numbers An improved performance by several African economies – notably Nigeria – on the World Bank’s Doing Business index has resulted in some very positive headlines. But we would caution against assigning... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
