Africa Economics Weekly Buhari warms on trade, Ramaphosa plans Eskom rescue Nigeria’s usually mercantilist government seemed more open to regional integration this week. But while Abuja’s decision to join the AfCFTA trade pact is positive, plans for a West African common... 5th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Sino-Africa trade, Ethiopia crisis, weak investment in SA African leaders visiting China for a trade expo this week are sure to praise their ties with Beijing, but several big Chinese-funded infrastructure projects in the region are being delayed or... 28th June 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional tensions flare up The past month has been dominated by the escalation of tensions between the US and Iran and the risk of an outright conflict is rising. Admittedly, President Trump decided to call off airstrikes on... 26th June 2019 · 14 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira rumours, South Africa recovery, Ethiopia reforms Despite this week’s mixed messages from Nigerian officials, we doubt that the country’s FX system will be reformed anytime soon. In South Africa, the latest activity data suggest that the economy... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Confusion in South Africa, debt deal in Mozambique A political dispute over the mandate of South Africa’s Reserve Bank caused the rand to weaken this week. We doubt that the bank’s charter will be changed, but the row highlights intra-ANC divisions... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Hurdles ahead for Ramaphosa The inclusion of several investor-friendly ministers in South African president Cyril Ramaphosa’s new cabinet has been interpreted as a sign that the government may renew its push for reform. Local... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Rate cuts just around the corner in SA and Nigeria Central banks in South Africa and Nigeria left policy settings unchanged at their meetings this week but the accompanying communications supported our long-held view that interest rates will be cut... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa stumbles, Unemployment rises, Kenya bond sale Activity data out this week added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted by about 2% in Q1. Figures out next week, by contrast, will probably show that growth accelerated in Nigeria... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Weak mandate for Ramaphosa, Another term for Emefiele The comparatively poor showing by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC in Wednesday's election will probably weaken the reformist leader in his on-going struggle with intra-party rivals... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa: Election unlikely to spur reforms President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC is all-but certain to win this week’s election, but we’re sceptical that this will provide impetus to his sluggish reform drive. The ruling party will, after all... 6th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South African election, budgets in Nigeria & Kenya We doubt that next week’s South African election will do much to boost President Cyril Ramaphosa’s reform drive. Elsewhere, Kenyan officials released a first draft of next year’s budget, with the... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rose to 47.2 in April, providing a rare reason for optimism about the sector. This supports our view that economic conditions will strengthen in Q2. 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: More bad news across the region Figures released this month added to the evidence that African economies are struggling this year. The worst news was from South Africa and Angola, where recent activity data suggest that GDP actually... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenyan growth, Ethiopian reforms, (another) cyclone in Moz. The latest figures show that Kenya’s economy accelerated in 2018, but a worsening drought will cut growth this year. Elsewhere, a second cyclone is hitting Mozambique, dealing another blow to the... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Ethiopia’s reforms: Push forward or risk falling back PM Abiy Ahmed’s political and economic reforms have drawn attention to Ethiopia’s huge potential. But the process remains fragile and could easily be reversed. Developing a private sector-led... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Stable inflation, Weak Q1 in SA, Emefiele’s legacy Soft inflation readings across Africa this week supported our view that policymakers will cut rates in key economies. New figures added to the evidence that South Africa stumbled in Q1, while Nigerian... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
