Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation remains close to eight-year low EM inflation remained at close to an eight-year low last month, driven in large part by weakening price pressures in the BRIC economies. Inflation has been on the rise in most other EMs, although not... 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Political risks don’t warrant major growth revisions – yet… Political risks in some parts of the emerging world have escalated in recent weeks, but not to the extent that we are marking down our near-term growth forecasts. 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM stragglers start to pick up speed There has been a sharp turnaround in EM growth in recent months and we expect growth in several major economies, including Brazil and Russia, to surprise on the upside over the next year or so. But... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Cabinet reshuffle rocks markets Yesterday’s cabinet reshuffle has hit market sentiment towards South Africa. While the move will have an immediate political impact, the negative economic effects may be less significant than some... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: MPC hints at shift to more orthodox policymaking Today’s MPC statement suggested that policymakers are – at the very least – considering a shift towards tightening monetary conditions. The communication was, as ever, a bit unclear. We do not expect... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa’s economies finally turning the corner We believe that the economic cycle in Sub-Saharan Africa is turning; after slowing since 2014, growth will accelerate this year. This turnaround will be driven by both global and local factors. The... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Agriculture to drive growth in key economies The drought which hit a large part of Africa in 2015 and 2016 had a sizeable impact on economies in the South and East of the continent. Improving conditions will boost GDP growth in South Africa and... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus S. Africa: Growth to accelerate, but recovery won’t last After a grim 2016, growth in South Africa will recover more quickly than most expect, reaching 2.0% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018. But this would still be a woeful outcome for a country at South Africa’s... 3rd March 2017 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Grim end to the year, but worst now behind us Nigeria’s economy contracted by just 1.3% in Q4 2016, confirming our view that the slump bottomed out in Q3. Growth will pick up in 2017, and may even be a bit stronger than most expect. he National... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: New FX rate, no sign of full devaluation yet The introduction of another official FX rate in Nigeria is not (as many seem to suspect) the prelude to abolishing FX controls. Over the longer term, however, we still expect that a weakening of the... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: New data spring nasty surprises in Angola & Ghana New official economic data have revealed that the economies of Angola and Ghana are in much worse shape than we had previously believed. The revisions should draw attention to the weak statistical... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The significant improvement of South Africa’s manufacturing PMI is a rare positive surprise. But given the measure’s mixed performance in recent months, we will wait for more data before seriously... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Signs of life in Brazil and Russia Our GDP Tracker suggests that the EM GDP growth has continued to accelerate in recent months and is now running at its fastest pace in two years. While the recovery is still being driven by China... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: latest data confirm very weak growth in late 2016 Data published over the past month provided further evidence that economic growth in the region was very sluggish towards the end of last year. Q3 GDP figures did, admittedly, show that growth picked... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Little reaction to Mozambique’s missed bond payment Mozambique’s missed bond payment this week grabbed the headlines, but the market reaction was muted. Meanwhile, rising commodity prices have supported strong gains in South Africa’s currency and... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Inflation to end 2017 lower than it started Higher fuel prices will keep South Africa’s headline inflation rate above the Reserve Bank’s target range over the first quarter of this year, but slowing food inflation will bring it back within... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
