Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rates on hold, but rhetoric turns hawkish Today’s press conference saw the SARB leave rates on hold but take a notably hawkish tone.Policymakers seem to be rowing back their claim that the tighten cycle is coming to an end. 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trump and the fallout for EMs in five key points We’ve written lots over the past two weeks about Donald Trump’s victory and the implications for EMs. While much remains uncertain, in this Update we draw out five early takeaways. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) Inflation in South Africa picked up from 6.1% y/y in September to 6.4% y/y in October, but we still expect that the SARB will keep its key policy rate on hold this week. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update President Trump and the implications for the Middle East Two weeks on from Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential election and we’re starting to get a sense of the likely shape and priorities of his administration. The inherent contradictions in Mr... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN holds rates in face of “stagflation” Today’s MPC statement makes it very clear that the CBN is unwilling to hike interest rates in the face of inflation that is more than double the official target. The next move will probably be down. 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM markets stabilise after post-Trump sell-off Financial markets across the emerging world have stabilised following an initial sell-off in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election earlier this month. This partly reflects... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Non-oil economy recovers a bit as oil woes continue The improved performance of Nigeria’s non-oil sector is a very positive sign. But with oil output likely to fall yet again in Q4, it is too early to call the bottom of Nigeria’s economic downturn. 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will EM dollar-denominated bonds continue to underperform? Dollar-denominated government bonds have suffered disproportionately during the emerging market sell-off since Donald Trump won the US presidential election. We expect dollar-denominated bonds to... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank stands pat, but further rate hikes likely Today’s decision by Egypt’s central bank to keep its key interest unchanged at 14.75% is probably a pause in the tightening cycle. We think the fall in the pound since it was floated will push... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM exports after the Golden Era Last month, we published a Focus outlining why we think the golden era for EM growth has passed and why the emerging world is set for structurally weaker growth. In this Focus, we explain why the same... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trumpflation, the dollar and EM balance sheets The jump in the dollar caused by the so-called “Trumpflation” trade is unlikely to cause widespread or systemic problems in the emerging world, but several EMs do look vulnerable. The most exposed are... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy flatlined in Q3 September’s retail sales figure was a bit stronger than expected, but activity data for Q3 as a whole suggest that South Africa’s economy may have contracted last quarter. 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Tepid recovery for EM trade as protectionist threats mount The year-on-year contraction in EM trade growth seen in recent years is easing as values stabilise. But trade growth will not return to the rapid rates seen before 2012. A move towards protectionism... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus African Debt: Troubles contained in a few countries Mozambique’s worsening debt scandal has prompted fears of a string of debt crises across Africa. We believe, however, that the worst debt problems will be centred in Angola. Ghana and Zambia also look... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How a weaker pound will benefit Egypt’s economy The sharp fall in the Egyptian pound since it was floated earlier this month should help to narrow the country’s current account deficit and support a pick-up in private capital inflows. If backed up... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct.) Nigerian inflation accelerated to 18.3% y/y in October, which will put yet more pressure on the central bank to tighten monetary policy. We expect that the bank will hike its key policy rate from 14... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
