Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC meets, Egypt’s exchange rate policy OPEC’s biannual meeting kicked off today and all the signs are that the cartel will agree to an output cut by the time the meeting concludes tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Egyptian authorities have taken... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Nov.) November’s PMI data suggest that the Gulf’s non-oil sectors have held up well given the backdrop of the fall in oil prices. But we doubt that this resilience will last. Meanwhile, the surveys showed... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor US-China deal delays escalation, at least for now The ‘cease fire’ in the US-China trade war has reduced a risk for Asian EMs that are integrated into Chinese supply chains. But the potential fallout was always likely to be pretty small. The sharp... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Further signs of EM growth stabilising in Q4 The aggregate EM manufacturing PMI edged up in November, which adds to the evidence that EM GDP growth has steadied in Q4 after a slowdown in Q3. The improvement has been driven by the BRIC economies... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Cheaper oil both giveth and taketh away Lower oil prices will batter Africa’s big oil exporters. But they will benefit Africa’s oil importers, which make up the majority of the region’s GDP. Lower petrol prices will, for instance, sap... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Oil prices batter key economies The recent sharp fall in oil prices will add to headwinds facing the economies of Nigeria and Angola. We estimate that both country’s export revenues will have fallen by about a US$1bn over the past... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth slowed in Q3, but stabilising in Q4 Aggregate EM economic growth slowed to its weakest rate in over a year in Q3, but the data for October provide early signs that growth has started to stabilise in Q4. 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Taking the Long View: Africa in 2040 African economies will probably remain among the fastest-growing in the world over the coming decades. But slow productivity growth will prevent convergence with high income countries. Indeed, we... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil slump and output cuts, Egypt’s IMF deal The recent slump in oil prices is unlikely to cause major economic ructions in the Gulf, although it does look like policymakers will push ahead with an oil output cut at next week’s OPEC meeting... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya’s railway: Trouble ahead, but limited debt risk It is very unlikely that the new Nairobi-Mombasa railway will, as Kenya’s government hopes, break even next year. But fears that the troubled line will push up to Kenya’s debt repayment costs are... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB hikes rates, Tanzanian nuts, Ethiopian reforms Hawkish rhetoric from South Africa’s MPC suggests that another rate hike is likely in Q1. But the divided MPC’s appetite for further tightening will dissipate if – as we expect – inflation eases in... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Drop in oil prices unlikely to stop EM tightening The fall in oil prices over the past couple of months will drag down fuel inflation across the emerging world, but it probably won’t be enough to prompt policymakers to slow the pace of monetary... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB hikes, but cycle will end soon Hawkish rhetoric suggests that policymakers at the SARB will follow today’s 25bp rate hike with another rate rise in Q1. But we think that inflation will soon peak, and that rates will ultimately fall... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Lack of manufacturing will hold back growth Africa’s failure to develop export-orientated manufacturing sectors is holding back economic development across the region. We expect that this will remain a key weakness over the long term. Even in... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth holding up in early Q4, but set to slow The very early evidence suggests that EM GDP growth steadied at the start of Q4, as stronger export growth offset a slowdown in consumption. But activity is likely to weaken over the course of 2019. 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA: Land reform escalates, SARB will hold rates next week South Africa’s government has taken a big step towards the expropriation of land without compensation, but fears that land reform will disrupt the economy are overblown. Meanwhile, given weak economic... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
