Africa Economics Weekly Weak South Africa weighs on regional outlook Activity data out this week added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy faltered in Q1. As we argue in our latest Outlook, problems in South Africa are a key reason why we think that regional... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa: Recovery will stall in 2019, pick up next year Economic growth across Africa as a whole will remain weak in 2019 due to very poor performances from Nigeria and South Africa. Conditions will probably improve next year, but regional growth will be... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Is China blocking other countries’ path to prosperity? Rising automation, excellent infrastructure and the migration of some productive capacity into the cheaper interior mean that China is likely to remain a highly competitive export manufacturing centre... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Synchronised downturn The emerging world has entered its first synchronised downturn since 2015. Our growth forecasts remain below consensus in nearly all major EMs. With growth slowing and inflation near a decade low, EM... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Moody’s holds fire, SA institutional worries grow, weak PMIs Moody’s Ratings delayed the review scheduled for last Friday, leaving South Africa’s rating unchanged. Two new developments this week added to concerns about the country’s fiscal health. That said, we... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Mixed year for agricultural production Rebounds in agricultural production will help to support economic accelerations this year in Kenya and South Africa. Elsewhere in Southern & Eastern Africa, however, the sector will drag on growth –... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA debt back under review, central banks’ dovish tilt The upcoming Moody’s review of South African debt has raised fresh concerns about a sell-off in the country’s bond market. But we think that these fears are overdone. Meanwhile, central bank meetings... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Grim news across the region Figures released over the past month added to concerns that Africa’s largest three economies stumbled in early 2019. There was, admittedly, some good news from Kenya, where judges struck down a cap on... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Slow growth in SA, budget quandaries in Nigeria South African retail sales figures released this week provided another sign of economic weakness, and worsening electricity problems will add to economic headwinds. A new budget report has raised... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa slowdown, SARB, no word from Buhari Data published this week showed continued weakness in South Africa’s economy at the start of the year which, coming alongside soft inflation, may bring interest rate cuts onto the table sooner than we... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA: Investment slump, power prices prolong Eskom pain Growth figures out this week showed that South Africa’s economy slowed at the end of last year. But we think that improved confidence will boost investment this year, causing growth to pick up. The... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria set for policy stability, renewed risk of Kenya cut Markets surged when Muhammadu Buhari was elected president of Nigeria in 2015, but they slumped following his re-election this week. This is just another sign that investors have soured on the... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Rates in Egypt and Tunisia head in opposite directions Interest rate moves in Egypt and Tunisia this month highlighted the important role that balance of payments positions are playing in monetary policy decisions. In Egypt, tighter fiscal policy and the... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria: Buhari win sets stage for slow growth Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari’s clear win in last weekend’s election will almost certainly result in the continuation of his interventionist economic policies, which are widely seen to have... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi to extend output cuts, more protests in Algeria Fresh hints from Saudi Arabia that it will extend its oil production cuts into the second half of this year support our view that economic growth in the Kingdom will be weaker than most anticipate... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria actually goes to the polls, South Africa budget History suggests that, if Nigeria’s delayed election on Saturday passes peacefully, the stock market is likely to see a temporary bounce. But over a longer time horizon, global factors are likely to... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
