Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC to talk output cuts, Tunisia rates, Egypt’s wage bill Rumours suggest that OPEC will discuss the possibility of oil output cuts this weekend, although a decision seems highly unlikely at this stage. But if oil prices fall further, as we expect... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are EMs’ current accounts still a point of concern? The large current account deficits in Turkey and Argentina that precipitated currency crises this year are now narrowing and external positions are in decent shape in most major EMs. But there are a... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Financial conditions tightening in several EMs Strains in the balance of payments of some EMs last quarter seem to have been driven mainly by a decline in flows to bond markets. These flows now seem to have stabilised, but financial conditions... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update First thoughts on Mozambique’s debt deal The Mozambican government’s preliminary agreement to restructure its eurobond looks like an important first step out of its long-running debt saga. But even if this goes ahead, significant fiscal... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRICs drive uptick in EM manufacturing in Q4 The run of consecutive declines in the EM manufacturing PMI came to an end at the start of this quarter, thanks to an improvement in the surveys across the BRIC economies. Moreover, the breakdown of... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Figures suggest weak recovery in Nigeria & S. Africa Activity data released this week supported our view that economic conditions in Nigeria and South Africa were very weak in recent months. We think official GDP figures due out in late November and... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi loosens fiscal policy, Tunisia reforms face delay Data released this week confirmed that higher oil prices have prompted Saudi Arabia’s government to loosen fiscal policy further and we expect this to continue over the next few quarters, boosting... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Budget plans put focus on weak fiscal positions Policymakers in South Africa and Nigeria both laid out fiscal plans this month, but their responses to weak revenues were very different. South Africa’s new finance minister announced a wider deficit... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s budget targets growth, while Nigeria tightens South Africa’s new finance minister used this week’s budget statement to signal a shift away from further austerity, suggesting that Pretoria is prioritising support for the weak economy. Nigerian... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African public debt: Red lights flashing Worries about Africa’s rising public debt have focused on Mozambique and Zambia, but the situation elsewhere is less stable than it first appears. Nigeria’s debt position, for example, is very fragile... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa budget speech, Angolan recession, Ethiopian reshuffle Despite the weakness of the economy, South Africa’s new finance minister will probably use next week’s budget review to tighten fiscal policy, rather than to announce new stimulus measures. On a... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery losing steam Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will probably strengthen a touch in 2019, but growth across the region will remain weaker than consensus expectations. We think that growth in Nigeria will slow... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nene resigns, PDP picks candidate, Nigeria eyes eurobond The resignation of South Africa’s finance minister boosted the rand this week by demonstrating President Ramaphosa’s firm stance on corruption. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s key opposition party selected its... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Weathering the storm? Economic growth has held up far better than financial markets in the emerging world over the past few months. But while some countries will continue to do well, EM growth in aggregate is now slowing... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s revised GDP, Uganda hikes, Rand faces tough month New GDP figures have presented a more flattering picture of Ghana’s economy, though obviously actual output remains unchanged. The Bank of Uganda hiked its key interest rate this week, adding to signs... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly African Rates: Loosening cycle spluttering to a halt Central banks across Africa held their rates unchanged this week, strengthening our view that the region’s long loosening cycle has now come to an end. Nigeria’s election cycle will get into gear next... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
