Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: where do the risks lie? Non-performing loans are likely to climb in many EMs as output and incomes collapse, potentially forcing policymakers in some countries to step in and recapitalise banks. The risks are greatest in... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The coronavirus crisis & EM public debt We think that most EM governments will increase the size of their fiscal support packages, which will cause public debt ratios to jump. For many of the poorest EMs, this will be supported by... 9th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Can lockdowns work in Africa? An increasing number of African governments have imposed lockdowns in an effort to fight Covid-19, but we think the risk that such restrictive measures fail to contain the outbreak is bigger in the... 6th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Tumbling rand, coronavirus containment, default risks The current risk-off sentiment means that the South African rand’s slide this week will probably continue in the near term. And escalating containment measures will take an economic toll, despite... 3rd April 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: debt restructuring wave to sweep the region The coronavirus and low commodity prices are putting pressure on most African economies’ balance of payments positions and pushing many sovereigns closer to default. Besides Zambia, which is already... 2nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI masks weakening conditions The rebound in the EM manufacturing PMI in March offers little comfort as the survey masks the true weakness of industry. What’s more, the services sector may fare worse during this downturn. 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of EM central bank bonds purchases EM central banks have acted swiftly in response to the coronavirus crisis, including adding bond purchases to their toolkit. These are aimed primarily at reducing credit spreads and stabilising the... 1st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Would capital controls work in EMs? In the face of rapid capital outflows, EMs may turn to capital controls to stabilise balance of payments positions. Such measures might help to stave off crises in some countries (particularly if they... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are EM financial vulnerabilities greatest? The impact of global measures to contain the coronavirus will result in a steep fall in EM GDP this year. And the collapse in output, spike in capital outflows and plunge in commodity prices could... 30th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Can containment work in Africa? IMF takes the stage African countries tightened their coronavirus containment measures this week, which will add to economic disruptions. But it isn't clear whether these policies will be as effective as they have been... 27th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Oil prices, virus outbreak batter economies Given the pace at which the coronavirus is disrupting activity both in Africa and globally, most of the backward-looking figures released this month probably tell us very little about the current... 26th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM capital flows: bank flows are the big risk The dislocation in global financial markets has led to large capital outflows from EM debt and equity markets, which has caused financial conditions to tighten. And the economic effects could be much... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are we about to see a wave of sovereign defaults? A record number of sovereign dollar bonds are now trading at distressed levels, although these are mostly those of smaller EM governments. Among the most highly distressed sovereigns, Zambia and... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Worsening outbreak, growth downgrades, rate cuts The coronavirus outbreak in Africa took a turn for the worse this week, with the number of cases more than tripling. Policymakers in South Africa and Ghana fired the first shots by cutting interest... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Coronavirus will cut growth across the region It now seems clear that the coronavirus outbreak will cause greater economic damage than we had initially thought – both globally and within Africa. Growth will slow across the region, with South... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs and the impact of containment measures The proliferation of measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus as well as shifts in consumer behaviour will have a severe effect on retail, accommodation, recreation and transport sectors across... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
