Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EMs set for weaker growth in 2019 EM GDP growth lost momentum over the second half of 2018 and we expect this to continue next year as growth in Emerging Asia, notably China, and Emerging Europe weakens. 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A guide to elections in 2019 In this Update we discuss the key implications of EM elections scheduled for 2019. Votes in Ukraine and Argentina – where opposition candidates could put IMF deals at risk – probably pose the greatest... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM equities not likely to bounce back in 2019 EM equities have had a torrid year, and we doubt that things will get any better in 2019. Indeed, we forecast that the MSCI EM Index will end next year around 10% below its current level, a similarly... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Ending 2018 on a weaker footing EM growth has slowed over the course of 2018 and our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate growth fell to its weakest pace in two years in Q4, at around 4.0%. 2019 is unlikely to be better. We expect... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola turns to the IMF, Nigeria stuck in first gear Angola’s $3.7bn deal with the IMF adds to the evidence that President João Lourenço is making a real shift towards more orthodox policymaking and while growth will stay weak in the near-term, economic... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Key calls for EMs in 2019 We think 2019 is likely to be a year in which EM growth slows, and by more than most expect, while asset prices fall. In this Focus, we outline our key calls for next year. 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC cuts, Qatari Emir shuns GCC, Oman dollar bonds The OPEC meeting concluded last Friday with a deal to cut oil output but we don’t think that this will provide a lasting boost to oil prices and, overall, the deal is set to result in slower GDP... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM dollar bond yields likely to rise even further The yield of the JP Morgan EMBI Global has edged up over the past month as a whole, despite a slump in underlying Treasury yields. We expect this pattern to be repeated next year. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.) Our Tracker suggests that, in Q4, capital outflows from EMs are on course to be the largest since “Trumpflation” in early 2017. But the pace of outflows did at least ease a little in November. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Why earnings are likely to weigh on EM equities Despite the fact that it has already fallen a long way, we think that the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index will drop by another 10-15% by the end of next year. This is partly because we expect... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly MTN dispute underlines Nigeria’s difficult business environment An opaque out-of-court settlement between Nigeria’s government and MTN would do little to improve perceptions of the country’s business environment. Elsewhere; South Africa’s economy returned to... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs can afford to loosen fiscal policy? Most of the major EMs have ample fiscal firepower. This is particularly true in Asia and we think fiscal policy is likely to be loosened in much of the region next year, which should cushion slowdowns... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC meets, Egypt’s exchange rate policy OPEC’s biannual meeting kicked off today and all the signs are that the cartel will agree to an output cut by the time the meeting concludes tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Egyptian authorities have taken... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Nov.) November’s PMI data suggest that the Gulf’s non-oil sectors have held up well given the backdrop of the fall in oil prices. But we doubt that this resilience will last. Meanwhile, the surveys showed... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor US-China deal delays escalation, at least for now The ‘cease fire’ in the US-China trade war has reduced a risk for Asian EMs that are integrated into Chinese supply chains. But the potential fallout was always likely to be pretty small. The sharp... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Further signs of EM growth stabilising in Q4 The aggregate EM manufacturing PMI edged up in November, which adds to the evidence that EM GDP growth has steadied in Q4 after a slowdown in Q3. The improvement has been driven by the BRIC economies... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
