Survey blues in South Africa, Nigeria’s budget woes

Figures published in South Africa this week gave an early indication of the scale of economic devastation caused by the country’s lockdown. The risks to our forecast for a 6.5% fall in GDP this year are skewed to the downside. Meanwhile, in Nigeria, there is growing talk from policymakers of the need to halt debt payments to multilateral lenders. Given the gap in the public finances that will be left by the latest fall in oil prices, debt talks with private sector creditors aren’t out of the question.