Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output cuts and expat fees, Egypt inflation Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister that oil production will be reduced to well below its OPEC quota suggests that the authorities are focused on driving oil prices higher in order to prevent a... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Lower valuations are little cause for optimism Most EM assets have yet to recover from their sharp falls in 2018, meaning that in many cases their valuations are still much lower than they were a year or so ago. But we wouldn’t interpret that as a... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Where to weather another storm in EM equities We think that the recent rebound in emerging market (EM) equities will prove temporary, as concerns about global growth intensify. We expect the healthcare and consumer staple sectors to be more... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Eskom reforms, EFF manifesto, Nigeria faces crucial election South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s plan to split Eskom into three is a welcome sign that Pretoria is willing to consider serious, structural reforms to the troubled electricity utility. Fiscal... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rally in EM local currency bonds likely to fizzle out This week’s flurry of EM central bank meetings will probably add to the signs that the shift towards tighter monetary policy in much of the emerging world is nearing an end. Even so, we doubt that the... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jan.) January’s PMIs point to stronger growth in the Gulf but we doubt that this will last as oil prices drop back and fiscal consolidation resumes. Elsewhere, inflation pressures in Egypt continued to... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenyan rates will remain on hold, but cuts elsewhere Kenyan policymakers left their key policy rate unchanged this week, and we think that they will hold rates over the remainder of the year. Peers in Angola and Ghana – who cut this week – will probably... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s pound to lose ground, Saudi anti-corruption drive The appreciation of the Egyptian pound this week appears to have been driven by a spurt of foreign portfolio inflows, but we still think that the currency will record a modest fall in the next couple... 31st January 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Most economies weak at turn of the year The latest figures suggest that Africa’s key economies stumbled in late 2018 and early 2019. Growth in South Africa probably slowed in the final quarter of last year (though it remained strong by... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf’s economic recovery to falter A raft of GDP releases over the past month showed that growth in the Gulf strengthened in Q3 of last year, but a renewed slowdown is likely in the coming quarters. In aggregate, it looks like the Gulf... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa rates: Kenya on hold, Ghana & Angola will keep cutting With inflation set to remain within target, we expect that Kenyan policymakers will leave their key rate on hold this year. Their Angolan and Ghanaian counterparts, however, will continue their easing... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya debt increases fragilities, SA inflation supports dovish view Given Kenya’s fragile external position, plans for more foreign currency debt will increase the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks. Policymakers at the Central Bank of Nigeria showed no sign... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa: Growth will pick up, despite faltering Nigeria After a very weak 2018, we expect that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will strengthen this year. The major oil exporters will, of course, suffer the effects of lower oil prices and our growth forecasts... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian pound to weaken, Gulf support for Lebanon Comments from the Central Bank of Egypt’s governor, Tarek Amer, earlier this week add weight to our view that the authorities will scale back support for the pound. This is likely to result in a... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Fresh slowdown on the cards The region’s recovery is set to falter in 2019 and growth is likely to be weaker than most expect. Low oil prices shouldn’t cause major balance sheet strains in the Gulf, but tighter fiscal policy and... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Has EM exposure to a China slowdown fallen? A number of EMs, particularly in Asia, look vulnerable to the impact of a China slowdown – and are just as exposed as they were when fears of a China ‘hard landing’ flared up in 2015. While we wouldn... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
