EM easing cycles: revisiting lessons from the GFC

The experience of the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) chimes with our EM rates view on two counts. The first is that easing cycles in many EMs are now at an end (Brazil) or will draw to a close over the coming months (Mexico, South Africa and Colombia). The second is that, in contrast to the view discounted in financial markets, most EM central banks will not start hiking rates for a prolonged period.