Delayed vaccination in SA, dovish SARB, downbeat IMF

The announcement this week that South Africa is suspending the roll-out of Johnson&Johnson vaccines, on which it heavily relies, risks further delaying an already slow vaccine campaign. Meanwhile, comments by South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago support our view that a tightening cycle is unlikely this year; most expect the SARB to begin hiking rates in 2021. Finally, the IMF’s recently released regional outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa shares our downbeat view on the region’s recovery prospects, but we still think growth in most countries will exceed the Fund’s expectations.