Global Economics Update Six reasons for optimism about the world economy Many commentators have suggested that the next global recession may be just around the corner. In contrast, our view is that the balance of risks to world growth this year and next now lies on the... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Indonesia Tin Exports (Oct.) Indonesia’s tin exports rose strongly in October, but we expect volumes to drop sharply from November as new export regulations take effect. Lower Indonesian production and exports next year should be... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Deflation fears set to fade as broad price pressures rise Headline inflation is likely to have edged down in October due to a fall in food price inflation. But the bigger picture is that underlying price pressures appear to be picking up. Looking ahead, we... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s euro-zone retail sales data suggested that the region’s consumer recovery is starting to run out of steam. 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates to remain on hold in Malaysia throughout 2016 Today’s decision by Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) to keep interest rates on hold at 3.25% indicates that it is more worried about currency weakness than the slowing economy. We expect rates will... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How long will the Gulf’s foreign exchange reserves last? Substantial foreign exchange reserves mean that most of the Gulf economies can afford to adjust gradually to a prolonged period of cheap oil. Kuwait and the UAE are in the strongest position, but... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Oct.) According to the Halifax, house price inflation accelerated to 9.7% in October. That is a much faster rate than is currently being reported by other indices and, at more than three times the rate of... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank policy unchanged, but rate cut likely next year The Norges Bank left its policy rate on hold today, but its loosening cycle is not over. Inflation looks set to fall next year and, as a result, we have pencilled in a 25 basis point cut in March. 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will car sales regain some pace ahead? Spending on cars has been cruising along nicely. But we doubt it will provide as much of a boost to consumer spending in coming years, particularly as temporary sources of support, such as pent-up... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Oct) Swiss CPI inflation held at a record low in October, increasing the likelihood that the SNB will intervene in foreign exchange markets before long to prevent a renewed appreciation of the franc from... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q3) Indonesia recorded another quarter of relatively weak growth in Q3, with GDP expanding by just 4.7% y/y, well below the 5.8% average recorded over the past decade. With tight monetary policy and low... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Oct. 15) Swiss CPI inflation held at a record low in October, increasing the likelihood that the SNB will intervene in foreign exchange markets before long to prevent a renewed appreciation of the franc from... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank policy unchanged, but rate cut likely next year The Norges Bank left its policy rate on hold today, but its loosening cycle is not over. Inflation looks set to fall next year and, as a result, we have pencilled in a 25 basis point cut in March. 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economy will struggle to cope with oil shock Although the mild recession in the first half of this year has ended, the drag from falling business investment triggered by the slump in oil prices is far from over and growing imbalances in the... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks rose once again last week. However, despite an increase in crude production, the stock build was much smaller than the previous week’s, as refinery inputs continued to pick up and... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Fed inaction drives gold and silver prices lower The performance of the major precious metals continued to diverge in October. While the platinum price was buoyed by strong euro-zone auto sales, gold and silver prices remained tied to the... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
