Canada Economics Update Growing labour market slack to restrain core inflation Recent headline employment gains mask a deterioration in underlying labour market conditions. If, as we fear, the economy continues to struggle in response to the worsening oil price slump, then... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia turns to international bond markets to plug shortfall Reports that Saudi Arabia will launch an international bond provides some clarity on how the budget deficit will be financed over the next year – as things stand, we think around 65% will come from... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What's in store for the UK stock market? The UK stock market has performed poorly on an absolute and relative basis in 2015, dragged down by sharp falls in the basic materials and oil & gas sectors. These two sectors account for around one... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fall of Portuguese Government shows austerity is failing Today’s vote of no confidence in the Portuguese Government seems set to usher in a renewed push against austerity and a further rise in bond yields. The one hope is that mounting public resistance to... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is sluggish trade growth a warning sign for the global economy? The OECD’s warning yesterday that weak trade growth may herald an economic downturn is wide of the mark. Trade in goods has continued to grow in line with industrial output and the link between trade... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazil Sugar Production (16th Oct. – 1st Nov.) Figures released today by Brazil’s Sugarcane Industry Association, UNICA, show that 38.4 million tonnes of cane were harvested in the second half of October in the main South-Central cane-growing... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Cobalt supply unlikely to keep pace with demand Demand for cobalt looks set to grow rapidly for the foreseeable future given its use in rechargeable batteries. But the supply outlook is deteriorating, suggesting scope for prices to rally strongly. 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Little sign that euro-zone property cycles are close to their peak The latest RICS Global Commercial Property Survey shows that around 70% of respondents believe that property in Germany and France is expensive. Yet while German capital values in particular have... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Output (Sep.) Today’s manufacturing output figures were sharply above consensus, and show that the economically crucial sector returned to growth in September. This is a welcome sign, and supports our view that the... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What do China’s statistical revisions mean for coal prices? Whilst the latest revisions to China’s coal demand statistics raise more questions about the reliability of official data, we don’t think they change the big picture of falling coal demand and weaker... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Oct.) The significant fall in the BRC Retail Sales Monitor in October reflected temporary factors in both the current and previous months. The underlying picture is more positive, with support from solid... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.) Volatile food prices aside, price pressures were largely stable in October. Looking ahead, we expect inflation to edge higher in the coming months. But the window for further interest rate cuts will... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Industrial Production (Sep.) September’s industrial production data from France and Italy added to the evidence that euro-zone industrial growth might have slowed in Q3 from its already weak pace. 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) The further rise in Egyptian inflation to 9.7% y/y in October was driven almost entirely by an increase in the food component, which is highly volatile. Stripping out food prices, inflation actually... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What does the Keystone XL veto mean for oil prices? The recently-vetoed Keystone XL pipeline would have provided a relatively cheap means for Canadian producers to transport oil to refineries in the US where it could be processed for sale. As such, the... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
