UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Oct) Commercial property investment rose significantly in October ending three consecutive months of declines. However, it is unlikely that this spike in investment will continue in the months ahead as the... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will US equities remain out of favour? Since the end of the last recession, there has been an almost interrupted net outflow from US mutual funds that invest in domestic equities. This partly reflects investors’ growing preference for... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan’s exports set for recovery Exports from Taiwan have been contracting since the start of the year, but should return to growth soon. An improving export picture could be enough to make the difference between rates staying on... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.) October’s 2.5% y/y rise in Mexican consumer prices is unlikely to change the near-term monetary policy outlook given that it was in line with expectations and unchanged from September. Instead, with a... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Where next for Myanmar after the election? The victory for Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) party in Sunday’s elections is a welcome step forward for Myanmar. However, the country continues to face major challenges. For... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Markets look set to take first Fed rate hike in their stride The relatively calm reactions to Friday’s strong US employment report support our view that the gradual return of US interest rates towards more normal levels is unlikely to be the seismic shock that... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Renewed security concerns to hit Egypt’s tourism sector Mounting evidence that the Russian plane crash in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula was caused by a bomb planted by an affiliate of Islamic State is almost inevitably going to deal a hammer blow to Egypt’s... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response US silver imports and exports (Aug.) US exports of semi-manufactured silver remained subdued in August, suggesting that global industrial demand is yet to recover. Meanwhile, investors continued to buy into falling prices, boosting... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Italy’s labour market recovery continue? Italy’s labour market has shown some strong signs of improvement since the summer, but we suspect that this is unlikely to last. Reduced tax incentives for hiring, as well as sluggish economic growth... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s trade data provide some grounds for optimism While the headlines have focused on the falls in export and import values, China’s trade data actually show commodity import volumes holding up well. What’s more, the record trade surplus will support... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Sep.) & Czech CPI (Oct.) The slowdown in Turkish industry in September means that industrial production growth over Q3 as a whole was a little slower than in Q2. Elsewhere, the weaker-than-expected inflation data from the... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update BJP defeat in Bihar dampens reform prospects The heavy defeat for Prime Minister Modi and the BJP in the Bihar state assembly election suggests that political goodwill towards the winners of last year’s general election is beginning to run out... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Sep.) Wage growth edged up in September but still falls short of trend productivity growth. The upshot is that the tight labour market has yet to create noticeable cost pressures. 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Fading outflows ease pressure on renminbi Capital outflows from China appear to have eased while the trade surplus is at an all-time high. As a result, downward pressure on the renminbi has dissipated. We suspect, contrary to the analyst... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines well placed to grow strongly after the election With six months to go before presidential elections in the Philippines, and the incumbent, Benigno Aquino, barred from running again, attention has started to turn to who will replace him. Although... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
