DM Markets Chart Pack What next for the US dollar? Over the past month, the US dollar’s performance against other “major” currencies has been mixed. It has fared poorly against those of the two major commodity exporters, Australia and Canada, which... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economic recovery picks up pace at the start of Q4 The latest business surveys support our view that the slowdown in the economy in Q3 was just temporary. Gains in both the Markit/CIPS manufacturing and service sector PMIs in October left the economy... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Internat'l Trade (Sep.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Oct.) The big narrowing in the trade deficit in September is encouraging, but that improvement won't last. The dollar’s surge over the next 12 months means that the deficit is likely to widen again and net... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Sep.) Exports lost momentum during the third quarter, with volumes stagnating in September after falling in August, suggesting that the economy is unlikely to sustain the estimated 2.5% annualised GDP... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct.) Following the surge in mortgage applications for home purchase in September, due to the introduction of TRID disclosure rules, the fact that applications only dipped marginally in October is a... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sentiment improves as investors cut short positions As changing weather forecasts in key growing regions shape markets’ expectations for production, some sharp price increases in October saw investors rush to reduce their short futures positions. By... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Back on the roller-coaster Volatility returned to the oil market in October with prices being pushed and pulled by swings in sentiment towards China, changes in the value of the dollar and the outlook for demand in the US. The... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are the prospects for labour markets and wages? Unemployment rates in the US, euro-zone, Japan, and UK are likely to continue falling gradually over the coming years. However, the prospects for wage growth in these four economies vary considerably. 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi consumer spending to weaken further as fiscal squeeze bites Despite recent media reports espousing the resilience of Saudi consumers in the face of lower oil prices, a number of indicators suggest that household spending in the Kingdom has softened in recent... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Belgium’s tax shift boost growth? Belgium has the highest tax burden on labour in Europe, so measures announced recently aimed at reducing it are a positive step. However, the reforms do not go far enough. Accordingly, over the next... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Sep.) The 10.9% y/y fall in Brazilian industrial production in September, coming on the back of similarly steep falls in output July and August, means that the sector probably subtracted around 2.0%-pts... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Oct.) The slight bounce-back in the Markit/CIPS services survey in October brought moree vidence of what we expect will be a rebound in growth in Q4, after the slowdown in Q3. 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland raises rates and tightening cycle not yet over Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to raise its key interest rates by 25bp does not mark the end of its tightening cycle. A further rate rise is likely at the next meeting in December. 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) & Producer Prices (Sep.) October’s rise in the euro-zone composite PMI suggested that the region’s recovery maintained its pace at the start of Q4. But current rates of growth are too slow to put upward pressure on inflation... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Is monetary policy “just right”? Comments this week from RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan and Finance Minister Arun Jaitley hint at a welcome thawing in their frosty relationship. What’s more, they support our view that the rate-cutting... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
