UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Oct.) The improvement in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey in October suggests that output in the manufacturing sector has regained some vigour going into the final quarter of 2015. 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi downgrade puts poor fiscal position in the spotlight The decision by Standard & Poor’s to downgrade Saudi Arabia’s sovereign credit rating on Friday night is hardly surprising in light of the deterioration in the fiscal position this year and lack of a... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The sharp fall in South Africa’s October manufacturing PMI supports our view that the country’s manufacturing sector will struggle over the coming months. 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets welcome AK victory, economic problems remain The Turkish lira and stock market have rallied following Sunday’s election results, which delivered the ‘Goldilocks’ scenario of a small AK party majority in parliament. This has alleviated concerns... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) Manufacturing PMI surveys for October showed that industry across Emerging Europe started Q4 on a strong note. The improvement in Poland was particularly encouraging, and Central Europe in general... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Worrying fall in underlying inflation The further fall in underlying inflation in Australia in the third quarter could be the start of a period of persistently low inflation that plays a role in prompting the Reserve Bank of Australia to... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The fall in India’s manufacturing PMI reading in October highlights that, despite recent signs of a recovery in the hard activity data, local industry continues to face significant headwinds. 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) Emerging Asia's PMIs remained lacklustre in October, but in the three economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, the surveys suggest that manufacturing conditions are at least... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Oct.) The latest PMI readings suggest that momentum in the manufacturing sector continued to improve last month, helped by a pick-up in foreign demand, and that service sector growth is still holding up... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Consumer Prices, Household Spending (Sep.) The renewed rise in inflation excl. fresh food and energy in September would provide a reason for the Bank of Japan to leave policy settings unchanged later today. But the rebound in underlying... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Focus to shift back (at least briefly) to China The key drivers of commodity prices in the past week have been the ebb and flow of expectations for US interest rates and speculation of tighter supply – the latter boosting US crude oil prices and... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation measure likely to be switched next year Given the success of inflation targeting at lowering trend inflation and anchoring inflation expectations, the formal inflation-control agreement between the Bank of Canada and Federal government isn... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed still likely to delay first rate hike The Fed clearly wanted to signal last week that a rate hike in December was a realistic possibility but, on balance, we still anticipate that it will be delayed until early next year. It’s recently... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update El Niño to keep rice prices on the boil With El Niño threatening to reduce rice harvests in South-east Asia and the world stocks-to-consumption ratio expected to hit the lowest level since 2006, we think rice prices will move higher. 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed tightening wouldn’t let the ECB or BoJ off the hook Some commentators have suggested that the prospect of an earlier rate hike from the Fed and the resulting appreciation of the US dollar will significantly reduce the pressure on the ECB and BoJ to... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
