Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Sep.) Activity data from Chile picked up in September despite a major earthquake hitting the country. Encouragingly our GDP Tracker suggests that GDP growth edged up over Q3 as a whole. 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Oct.) Although the October CBI Distributive Trades Survey indicated a substantial slowdown in retail spending growth compared to September, we do not take it as a sign that the consumer recovery is headed... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Sep.) Growth in household borrowing strengthened in September, supporting the ongoing recovery. And although mortgage approvals fell back, we believe this is a temporary blip with fundamentals still... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia begins to tighten its belt The past month has brought the clearest signs yet that a fiscal squeeze in Saudi Arabia is looming. According to leaked memos, the Ministry of Finance has ordered government entities to halt new... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Oct.) October’s EC business and consumer survey suggested that the euro-zone’s economic recovery may have gathered some pace at the start of Q4. But it also showed that consumer inflation expectations... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Inflation Report could warn markets have gone too far We expect mixed messages from this month’s Inflation Report. On the one hand, a lower profile for inflation over the next few months is likely to confirm that interest rates will not rise until well... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Sep.) In net terms, loans extended to commercial property rose in September. While, traditional lenders’ exposure to property seems to be reaching more manageable levels, the data continues to show banks’... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Oct.) & Mortgage Lending (Sep.) Nationwide reported that house price growth picked up a little in October, despite a dip in mortgage approvals for house purchase during the previous month. Both figures suggest that the low levels of... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) This month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were encouraging – our regional aggregate rose to its highest level since September 2008. Admittedly, there were some... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Myanmar: Asian Tiger or basket case? A slumping currency, down by a fifth since the start of the year, a dreadful business environment, and an uncertain security situation are some of the challenges facing Myanmar as it prepares to go to... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth broadly stable at end of Q3 Our updated China Activity Proxy (CAP) continues to suggest that the economy is expanding markedly slower than the official figures claim. However, it remains consistent with our view that, after... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s fiscal woes: Looking beyond the deficit Despite the steep fall in oil prices and a very weak economic growth, we expect that Nigeria’s budget deficit will remain relatively contained in 2015 and 2016. As we explain in this Watch, however... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is the service sector keeping China afloat? The answer to the question of whether China’s economy is sinking or swimming lies in its service sector. Some firms are thriving while others are struggling. Crucially though there is no evidence that... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) The rebound in industrial output in September and upbeat forecasts for Q4 have reduced the chances that the Bank of Japan will announce more easing tomorrow. 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed leaves door open to December rate hike The post-FOMC meeting statement released today certainly leaves open the possibility that the Fed will hike interest rates at the next meeting in December. Nevertheless, we still think that the Fed is... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Times a-changin’ in Argentina? The surprise outcome of the presidential election in Argentina has raised the prospect of a shift towards more market-friendly policymaking, following 12 years of populism under successive Kirchner... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
