Global Economics Update Money aggregates growing steadily Monetary conditions remain highly accommodative in most advanced economies, notwithstanding the rise in corporate bond yields since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, broad monetary aggregates are... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Price of palm oil to rise as El Niño hits output With the possibility of this year’s strong El Niño tightening supplies in the months ahead, we now think that the price of palm oil is likely to rise as we move into next year. 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks rose for the fifth consecutive time last week, but the latest increase was less than half the previous week’s as net crude oil imports fell and inputs to refineries rebounded... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Higher eurobond yields show shifting sentiment The high yield of Ghana’s new eurobond provides yet more evidence that market sentiment towards African dollar debt has turned. Equity and currency markets, meanwhile, performed poorly across the... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Global easing bias remains, despite prospect of Fed tightening 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB really cut rates even further? While we have argued for some time that the ECB will expand its asset purchases in December, we now expect it to cut its deposit rate further into negative territory too. This seems unlikely to have... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What might strong US GDP data mean for equities? With the FOMC almost certain to leave interest rates on hold later today, the event which is perhaps more likely to move US markets this week could be the advance (first) estimate for Q3 GDP... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Signs of improvement in latest EM data Against the backdrop of ongoing talk of an EM slowdown, it appears that growth in the emerging world has actually been fairly steady in recent months. In fact, the latest reading of our EM GDP Tracker... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch A lot more easing to come The US Fed now looks likely to leave interest rates unchanged until next March before tightening policy more rapidly than the markets anticipate. Many other major central banks, meanwhile, are still... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed to hike more than expected, but global fallout to be limited While the FOMC meeting will surely conclude today with no change in policy, we continue to expect US interest rates to be raised more than the markets anticipate in 2016 and beyond. Nonetheless, this... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank loosens policy but still more needed The decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to increase the size of its government bond-buying programme was clearly a response to the growing anticipation of more stimulus from the ECB. We think that these... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Sep.) House price growth accelerated in September, reflecting the healthy economic backdrop and the shortage of homes for sale on the market. But given that house prices are already high, we think that... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Commodity currencies may have found a floor Our forecast that the prices of many natural resources will edge a little higher over the next couple of years suggests that the downside for commodity currencies will be limited even after the Fed... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe loses some of its shine Central Europe has been a rare bright spot in the emerging world over the past few quarters, but recent developments have taken some of the gloss off. Activity and survey data for August and September... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Less to economic relations with Africa than meets the eye The ongoing India-Africa Forum Summit in Delhi has been accompanied by a great deal of confused commentary on the nature and extent of economic relations between India and Africa. Contrary to what... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Weak inflation expectations add to pressure on ECB The dovish stance taken by the ECB in recent weeks has partly reflected its fear that inflation expectations have become unanchored from the near-2% target. Such concerns are justified, supporting... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
