Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The 0.2% m/m decline in consumer prices in September, which pushed the annual inflation rate down to 1.0%, from 1.3%, was almost entirely due to a big slump in gasoline prices. Gasoline prices fell by... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Are negative interest rates effective? This week’s news that the ECB discussed cutting its deposit rate further below zero has revived discussion of the limits to, and effects of, negative interest rates. Their use by several European... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Both pros and cons of leaving EU often overstated Although he said that it would be “a bit of a yawner”, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s speech on the UK’s membership of the EU contained something for both the pro- and anti-Europe camps to... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will supermarket returns be even weaker than anticipated? Reflecting weaker occupier demand conditions, total returns in 2015 are likely to undershoot our forecast from last year. However, falling yield spreads against standard shops and a shrinking pipeline... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore prices to fall further on strong supply The ongoing ramp up in supply and ever-lower cash costs at the major producers suggest that the iron ore market will remain well supplied. With subdued steel demand and output, we expect prices to... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Asia Cocoa Grindings (Q3) Data on Asia’s cocoa grindings revealed a 1.6% y/y decline in Q3, the fifth consecutive y/y fall. This follows data released last week which showed a decrease in overall European and North American... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver price to benefit from industrial metals output cuts Production cuts in the copper and zinc industries will also translate into lower silver supply over the next few years. We expect silver output to be broadly flat in 2015 and to fall by 3% in 2016... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Growth in Taiwan to recover after weak third quarter Figures due to be released over the coming week are likely to show that growth in Taiwan slowed sharply last quarter. However, with prospects for exports improving and domestic demand likely to remain... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What has driven the rise in buy-to-let mortgages? The buy-to-let mortgage market has grown quickly over the last few years. But the majority of that growth has come from landlords remortgaging their existing loans, rather than new buyers entering the... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) October’s rise in the euro-zone composite PMI suggested that the region’s recovery continued at a modest pace at the start of Q4. But the fading boosts from the lower oil price and weaker euro point... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Exemptions won’t dampen blow from sales tax hike The government intends to mitigate the impact of the sales tax hike scheduled for April 2017 by lowering the tax rate on food and other daily necessities. However, the benefits even for low-income... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Services strength underpinning rebalancing For all the (justified) doubts over the accuracy of the headline growth rates, the third quarter GDP data provide evidence of encouraging shifts in the economy. According to the official data... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) While the rebound in today’s flash manufacturing PMI for October suggests that the economy may have turned a corner in Q4, the Bank of Japan tends to pay little attention to the PMI surveys. 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation to play a more pivotal role in the policy debate Our forecast that underlying inflation in Australia will fall below the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target range next year suggests that inflation will soon start to have a bigger influence on policy... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q3 Preliminary) Korea's economy rebounded in the third quarter as the impact of the negative shock caused by the outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in mid-2015 faded. We expect the recovery to... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Oil producers adjusting to new reality The collapse of oil prices since mid-2014 has exposed the huge variation in the public finances of the world’s major oil exporters. Poorly managed emerging economies such as Russia and Venezuela had... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
