Europe Economics Update Austria’s banks casting a smaller shadow over the economy Austria’s banking sector is still struggling with the legacy of the 2008 crisis when its large exposure to Emerging Europe brought it to the brink of collapse. However, in its current state, with... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Sep.) September’s UK public finance figures suggested that the downward trend in borrowing is back on track after a brief wobble last month. Admittedly, it might still be a struggle to meet the OBR’s... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Gulf, FX reserves and budget spending: a primer Several Gulf countries have turned to their foreign exchange reserves in an effort to finance budget and current account deficits caused by last year’s slump in oil prices, but there seems to be... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.) Last month’s weaker-than-expected South African inflation reading, of 4.6% y/y, coming alongside the recent rally in the rand, makes next month’s Reserve Bank rate decision a close call. But with... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP facing tough battle in Bihar Prime Minister Modi and the BJP face an uphill battle in their attempts to win the ongoing election in the state of Bihar. From an economic perspective, the Bihar vote is important for two key reasons... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Sep.) The trade balance was little changed in September despite a plunge in import prices. The upshot is that net trade remained a drag on GDP growth in Q3. 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Participation rate will continue to fall The decline in the participation rate is almost entirely due to structural factors and there is little prospect of a rebound in the next few years. The downward trend in the participation rate... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Liberal fiscal plan may lift growth modestly The Liberal party’s surprise majority Federal election victory has been shrugged off by financial markets, which is a good thing considering the already uncertain economic outlook. The Liberals pledge... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Sep.) World Steel Association (WSA) data for September show a 3.7% y/y fall in global steel output, with declines in most major producing regions. This is a larger fall than last month, but the market... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update OPEC “technical meeting” unlikely to change policy The most likely outcome from tomorrow’s meeting of OPEC plus some selected guests is pledges to share more information between OPEC and other oil producers. Venezuela’s and others’ calls for a cut in... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC pledges to keep policy loose for longer The National Bank of Hungary’s MPC kept its policy interest rate unchanged at 1.35% earlier today, but the Council used the accompanying press release to commit to keeping interest rates on hold at... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Sep.) As expected, housing starts resumed their upward trend in September, confirming that the disruption over the summer caused by the expiry of a tax-break in New York has now worked through. While the... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook A curate’s egg The global recovery has slowed this year but is likely to accelerate again during the coming quarters. We expect world GDP growth to be only 2½% for 2015, using our own estimates for China, but to... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How is Norway coping with lower oil prices? The decline in oil prices has weighed on the Norwegian mainland economy and things could get worse before they get better. But ramped-up policy support from the Government and central bank next year... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Sep.) According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminium output grew by almost 10% y/y in September. Excluding China, output rose by a modest 3% y/y. 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
