Africa Economics Update Uganda hikes rates as inflation spikes, policy to stay tight The Bank of Uganda’s decision to hike its policy interest rate by a further 100bp, to 17.0%, today appears to be a response to the sharp pick-up in inflation in September. The bulk of the monetary... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Oct.) The ECB’s October Bank Lending Survey (BLS) revealed a slight loosening of credit conditions for firms and stronger demand for loans. It also gave positive signals about the effects of QE on bank... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Equities regain their poise After struggling for most of this year, Indian equities have rallied so far in October. Looking ahead, with valuations not looking particularly stretched, we expect equities to post further gains over... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown underway Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed in August and, with a fiscal squeeze looking increasingly likely, growth looks set to weaken further over the coming quarters. We continue... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Service sector activity looks healthy despite data concerns Although we think the official GDP figures overstate growth, we believe that it is primarily industrial growth that is exaggerated and are more willing to take the strength in services at face value. 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate hikes likely in Sri Lanka next year The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today kept its deposit and lending rates unchanged at 6.0% and 7.5%, respectively, despite headline inflation having been negative for the last three months. This... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How is Norway coping with lower oil prices? The decline in oil prices has weighed on the Norwegian mainland economy and things could get worse before they get better. But ramped-up policy support from the Government and central bank next year... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook The turn is nigh We expect three factors to combine to rescue the prices of key industrial commodities in the coming months. First, the responses of producers to the previous slump in prices will start to constrain... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus How has self-employment affected mortgage lending? As an indicator of the UK’s increased labour market flexibility, the rise in self-employment over the past six or seven years has probably been a good thing for the wider economy. But we think it has... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil downturn to shift from investment to consumers The primary driver of the slump in Brazil’s economy over the past year has been a collapse in business investment. We expect this to ease towards the end of this year – with consumer spending taking... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Cities to see stronger population growth than Germany as a whole 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Inv. & IP (Sep.) & Poland IP (Sep.) September’s activity data from Russia suggest that while the downturn in industry seems to have bottomed out, the slump in consumer spending has deepened. Retail sales are now falling at their... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swiss election doesn’t change gloomy economic outlook The shift to the right in yesterday’s Swiss election will mean continued resistance to immigration and perhaps more business-friendly policies. But exchange rate developments are more important for... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is Finance Minister Aso the Bank of Japan’s new oracle? Finance Minister Aso has been downplaying the chances of further monetary stimulus. But given that Japan’s government has previously argued that “surprise” is a key element of effective monetary... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank loosens grip on pound, further falls likely For the third time this year the Central Bank of Egypt has loosened its grip on the pound and the currency is likely to fall further over the coming days. We expect it to reach 8.25/US$ by the end of... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
