China Data Response Q3 GDP & September Activity Data The continued stability of the official GDP figures will further cement concerns over their credibility. For our part, while we do think the official figures are currently overstating growth by a wide... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss election doesn’t change gloomy economic outlook The shift to the right in yesterday’s Swiss election will mean continued resistance to immigration and perhaps more business-friendly policies. But exchange rate developments are more important for... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would a Scioli presidency mean for Argentina? Daniel Scioli, the candidate of Argentina’s left-wing ruling coalition, seems on course to win the presidential election in the first round on 25th October. His plans for the economy have been... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation targeting policy not enough Canada’s inflation target agreement between the Federal government and the Bank of Canada is up for renewal next year and the conventional wisdom is that it doesn’t need fixing. In contrast, we think... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Prices consolidate but tone generally positive Commodity prices have given back some of the previous week’s gains, due in part to some mixed signals from the US and Chinese economies. Nonetheless, the overall tone remains positive, helped by... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Odds of a rate hike this year even lower now The likelihood of the Fed hiking interest rates before the end of this year tumbled again last week, as the incoming data triggered some sizeable downgrades to estimates of third-quarter GDP growth... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italian and Irish budgets highlight contrasting fortunes While in last week’s Budget the Irish Government talked up its proposed tax cuts, the big picture was one of continued fiscal consolidation. All else equal, this will drag on growth. But Ireland’s... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Prod’n (Sep.) & Consumer Conf. (Oct.) The 0.2% m/m decline in industrial production in September was a much smaller fall than we were expecting, but it nonetheless illustrates the impact that the stronger dollar is having on manufacturing... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Easing credit conditions are beginning to boost FTB numbers Lenders have accelerated the easing of mortgage lending standards in recent months, thanks to a steady reduction in mortgage delinquencies and new GSE policies. That has started to boost the number of... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will Mr Osborne come to regret his “fiscal charter”? Chancellor George Osborne was last week able to pass his new “fiscal charter”, forcing current and future governments to run a budget surplus during “normal times”. But the Chancellor may come to... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Aug.) The slight decline in manufacturing sales volumes in August echoes the decline in exports already reported for that month, providing more evidence that the recovery from the first-half recession is... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Economic Activity Indicator (Aug.) The 4.5% y/y drop in Brazil’s Economic Activity Indicator in August suggests that the country’s recession probably deepened over Q3 as a whole. The monthly activity data suggest that this... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Price of cocoa to grind lower The price of cocoa has remained high due to supply concerns. However, with demand likely to continue to be weak, we think that the price will fall over the remainder of the year. 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook House price pressures to ease in 2016 Most of the evidence suggests that prices have become worryingly dependent on record low levels of interest rates. So a period in which prices grow in line with, or preferably by less than, incomes... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s tightening cycle to be brief Chile’s decision to raise interest rates last night is likely to be followed by another hike soon, but the bigger picture is that the tightening cycle is likely to be short. Meanwhile, although the... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
