Europe Commercial Property Focus Will Munich’s office rental premium over Hamburg continue to grow? Since early 2012, the rental premium commanded by prime office space in Munich over that in Hamburg has grown by almost a third. However, in the next few years both demand and supply fundamentals... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Saudi Arabian inflation rose to 2.3% y/y in September, its highest rate this year. But with the economy set to slow and global commodity prices likely to stay low, we expect inflation to remain... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Sep 15) The softness of September’s retail sales figures supports our view that the Fed probably isn’t going to hike interest rates until early next year. Our calculations now suggest that third-quarter GDP... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Steel prices to recover, but not until next year A combination of weak Chinese demand, destocking in North America and poor economic conditions in Brazil and the CIS is weighing on steel demand this year. At the same time, global output has been... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (August) Jobs numbers continue to point to healthy occupier demand conditions. And although the pace of job creation in London has cooled, demand fundamentals in the regions still looks solid. 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that over a quarter of a trillion dollars flowed out of EMs in the third quarter. This was largely due to China, although there are signs that the pace of capital... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep.) Data released today showed that Nigerian inflation continued its slow grind higher last month, reaching 9.4% y/y, its strongest rate in over two years. Given the previous slide in the naira and the... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s decline in euro-zone industrial production suggested that the sector is still struggling to grow despite the weaker euro and that it will not be a major driver of the euro-zone’s sluggish... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Aug./Sep.) The latest labour market statistics confirmed that the jobs recovery is back on track after the dip in employment in the spring. Meanwhile, the easing in pay growth has further reduced the case for a... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Long-term outlook for US natural gas prices still bright We remain positive on the outlook for US natural gas prices over the next few years, despite the current weakness, as the cleaner fuel should continue to take market share from coal. 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Falling import prices create another headwind for the BoJ While the Bank of Japan remains upbeat about the prospects of hitting its 2% inflation target, the fact that non-energy import prices have just recorded the first fall since the launch of QQE... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Aug.) Turkey’s balance of payments data for August were, on the face of it, encouraging as the current account deficit fell to its lowest monthly level since 2009. But it’s worth noting that the decline in... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What are the prospects for core Europe? With the periphery’s problems far from over, hopes for the euro-zone’s future rest with the core countries. But neither Germany nor France seem set for an economic transformation and the fiscal union... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Sep.) Wholesale price inflation rose in September after falling a record low in August. Looking ahead, we think that WPI inflation will accelerate further over the coming months as the favourable base... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Today's inflation data suggest that seasonal factors and volatile food prices aside, price pressures were basically stable last month. Nonetheless, we think it is only a matter of time before... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
