Asia Economics Weekly Rupiah rebound unlikely to prompt immediate rate cuts The rebound in the Indonesian rupiah over the past week is unlikely to be enough to persuade Bank Indonesia to cut interest rates at its meeting on Thursday. But provided the recent rally does not go... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Reassessing currency misalignment The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) is likely to publish its latest semi-annual estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) next month. We suspect that these will... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French, Italian & Dutch Industrial Production (Aug.) A mixed set of national industrial production data for August from France, Italy and the Netherlands suggested that while euro-zone industry might have fared slightly better in Q3 than it did in Q2... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade & Construction Output (Aug.) August’s trade and construction figures provided further signs that the UK’s economic recovery lost some pace in Q3, and remained unbalanced. However, we remain confident that the recovery will regain... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Lower price expectations add to case for more easing Expectations of future price rises among Japanese households and firms have been undermined by the energy-related collapse in observed inflation. Even though the drag from cheaper energy will fade in... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Sep.) Czech inflation came in at a slightly stronger-than-expected 0.4% y/y last month, as an easing of the decline in food prices more than offset a steeper decline in fuel prices. The bigger picture... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets too dovish in expecting no rate hike until 2017 Markets expectations for the timing of the first hike in UK interest rates have moved significantly over the past month or so. While global market uncertainty in August had meant that markets were... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazil Sugar Production (16th Sep. – 1st Oct.) Data released today by Brazil’s Sugarcane Industry Association, UNICA, showed that sugarcane harvesting in Brazil’s main South-Central region was back on track in the second half of September after... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Consensus is moving towards a copper deficit next year Planned and unplanned cuts to copper supply now make it increasingly likely that the market will be in deficit next year (and possibly this year), even with very subdued demand projections. This... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Does the increase in credit spreads presage an economic slowdown? 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) The further fall in Mexican inflation in September, coming on the back of dovish minutes from last month’s MPC meeting published this week, and a recent appreciation of the peso against the dollar... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Price pressures to rise further A seasonal slide in fruit and vegetable prices may have temporarily pulled down consumer price inflation last month. But the bigger picture is that underlying price pressures appear to be picking up... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Sep.) The fall in Chilean inflation in September, to 4.6% y/y, is an encouraging sign that price pressures resulting from the sharp fall in the peso over the past year are starting to wane. But with... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Softer economic news further alleviates need for hike The MPC’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5% this month would have been an easy one given the recent softening in both domestic and global economic news. While financial markets have... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Aug.) South Africa PGM production and sales continued to fall in August as low prices are threatening miners’ profitability. We expect production growth to continue to slow over the remainder of the year... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Mining & Manufacturing Output (Aug.) Manufacturing and mining output figures for South Africa released today were both weaker than the figures reported last month. The downbeat data support our view that growth will remain weak over the... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
