Europe Economics Focus Is the Greek crisis finally over? This Focus takes a detailed look at the outlook for Greece after the implementation of its third bailout and concludes that the country’s six-year crisis is far from over. Indeed, a Grexit is still... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Sep.) Inflation in Brazil was unchanged at 9.5% y/y in September, but the headline rate is on course to rise again in October as fuel price hikes recently announced by state-owned oil company Petrobras come... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How we compare with the IMF The IMF downgraded its forecasts for emerging market (EM) growth in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO). While we agree with the IMF that EM growth should rebound next year, we think the IMF has... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) The uncertainty generated by September’s Federal Reserve meeting, combined with a drop in mortgage rates to below 4% for the first time since May, helped applications for house purchase reverse most... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s economy is turning a corner Korea’s domestic economy appears to be getting back on its feet following the negative shock caused by the outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in mid-2015. With the outlook improving... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response World Gold Official Reserves (Aug.) Global central banks continued to add gold to their reserves in August, with China and Russia once again particularly active. We expect further official purchases to be one of several factors... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s UK industrial production figures were surprisingly good, although they are not enough to have stopped the overall economic recovery from slowing in the third quarter. 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s sharp falls in German and Spanish industrial production suggest that weakness in emerging economies may have caused their GDP growth to slow in Q3. 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bottoming out Inflation is likely to have accelerated in September, due in large part to the unwindingof the favourable base effects that helped anchor food inflation in July and August.What’s more, inflation... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan to announce more easing by end of the month While the Bank of Japan today provided few indications that additional stimulus is imminent, weretain our forecast that policymakers will step up the pace of easing by the end of the month. 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Sep.) Today’s data on China’s foreign exchange reserves suggest that capital outflows eased last month, allowing the People’s Bank to reduce its currency intervention. 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sugar price rally likely to falter soon The US dollar price of sugar has recently surged as a result of a hike in fuel prices in Brazil. But with the price of sugar already much higher in terms of Brazilian real, and the possibility of... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is falling space per worker a downside risk for London offices? If occupiers continue to require less office space per employee, our supply concerns about London’s office market would increase. However, with economic conditions and confidence improving over the... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC dovish, but rate cuts don’t seem to be on the cards Having left the policy interest rate on hold at 1.5% earlier today, the Polish MPC sounded relatively cautious about the downside risks to the inflation outlook. The Council doesn’t seem to be in the... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Aug.) While the sharp decline in export volumes in August was disappointing, the big gains in earlier months mean that net trade still contributed positively to third-quarter GDP, which we now estimate grew... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
