Emerging Europe Economics Update Time to worry about FX debt in Russia? The fall in the ruble has led to a sharp increase in the foreign currency debt burden for Russian companies. The risks are mitigated to some extent by the fact that the debt is concentrated among... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Would negative interest rates hamper QQE? We do not share BoJ Board member Shirai’s view that the introduction of negative rates would hamper the ability of the Bank to purchase JGBs. However, Ms Shirai’s views have been close to those of the... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore to opt against policy loosening Singapore should emerge from its recent bout of deflation toward the end of the year. Given this, we think that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will opt against loosening policy at its bi... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia outperforming other commodity producers While we remain concerned about the outlook for the Australian economy, we think it will continue to outperform other commodity producers such as Canada, Brazil and Norway. Australia’s labour market... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment & Household Spending (Aug.) The renewed rise in “core” household spending in August suggests that private consumption rebounded last quarter. But we still expect GDP to shrink as a result of falling investment and net exports. 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM Manufacturing slows further September’s PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world weakened further last month, with export orders particularly subdued. But in the EMs that have been in the spotlight... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack China concerns continue to weigh on prices Commodity prices fell again in September on concerns about a hard landing in China despite many leading indicators of the Chinese economy, including credit growth and fiscal spending, suggesting that... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is the UK market headed for a crash in 2017? Some forecasters are expecting commercial capital values in the UK to fall sharply in 2017 with an implied yield expansion of up to 120bps. This is unlikely unless we have significantly underestimated... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) September’s final manufacturing PMIs suggest that the global economy expanded at a moderate pace in Q3. Indeed, although Markit’s global manufacturing PMI fell from 50.7 to 50.6 in September, it is... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.2 in September from 51.1 in August is yet another illustration of the devastating impact that the strong dollar and weak foreign demand is having on... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The pick-up in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI last month, to 47.0 from 45.8 in August, was encouraging, particularly following recent early signs in the hard data that the slump in the economy may be... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Is the consumer recovery running out of steam? The consumer outlook has dimmed slightly over the summer, suggesting that the economic recovery needs to become more broad-based if it is to gain momentum. The Q2 GDP breakdown showed that the... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US stocks don’t indicate any market shortage The latest US grain stocks estimates continue to signal that grain and oilseed supplies are plentiful. With weak currencies boosting the competitiveness of key exporters, we think dollar prices are... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is rising supply a threat to Central European industrial rental values? Buoyed by strong economic conditions, industrial occupiers in Central Europe are expanding, leading to falling vacancy and rising rents. However, supply is responding. We expect this to curb rental... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to hold fire despite stronger labour market The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) does not seem too concerned by risks from China, while the recent pick-up in wage growth will worry the hawks on the Committee. Indeed, markets have probably gone... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
