China Economics Update Making sense of the official GDP data The official GDP figures are likely to show a small slowdown in China’s growth rate in Q3 – and also to be greeted with a large amount of scepticism. We’d put more weight on the details of the GDP... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Sep.) The small decline in Russian inflation last month, to 15.7% y/y, was reassuring in light of the fresh fall in the ruble. But even so, inflation remains extremely high and against this backdrop there... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Investor sentiment deteriorates further Concerns about the scale of the slowdown in China continued to weigh on metals prices in September. The decision by the US Fed to delay the first interest rate rise only provided temporary relief. As... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Election result doesn’t alter Portugal’s challenging outlook While the re-election of Portugal’s centre-right coalition appeared to be an endorsement of the austerity stance it has taken, its failure to secure a parliamentary majority means that it may struggle... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack No sign of a rise in seller numbers The imbalance between active buyers and sellers on the market grew in August, as the stock of homes for sale fell further during the month. What the market needs is an increase in the number of homes... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary indicators consistent with global recovery Many have argued that China’s attempts to prevent its currency from weakening conflict with its efforts to keep domestic monetary conditions loose. But China’s monetary indicators still point to a... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update US trade in silver bullion boosted by strong coin demand US imports and exports of silver bullion and doré picked up in July, as government mints across the world struggled to keep up with unexpectedly strong demand for silver coins. In contrast, trade of... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What do competitiveness rankings tell us about property pricing? There is a decent correlation between economic competitiveness and property pricing across Europe. Yet while some markets look mispriced based on this comparison, that’s partly explained by the fact... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Sep.) While the weak tone of the Markit/CIPS services survey in September brought more evidence of a soft end to Q3, we doubt that the economy is on the cusp of a renewed slowdown. 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep.) August’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that the consumer recovery remained on track. And the final PMIs point to quarterly GDP growth remaining at around 0.4% in Q3. But September’s monthly fall... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Cuts in investment to help oil prices recover Lower investment in oil exploration and production will lead to a sharp drop in growth in non-OPEC output over the next few years, especially from unconventional sources such as deep water and tar... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Bungled policy response plunges economy into crisis The response of Nigerian policymakers to falling oil prices has only worsened their country’s economic slump. Africa’s largest economy is now on the cusp of a self-induced economic crisis. 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.) September’s whole economy’ PMIs point to renewed weakness in the Gulf economies at the end of Q3. Elsewhere, there is further evidence that Egypt’s economy has stabilised following a weak first half... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Sep.) The rise in Turkish inflation to a stronger-than-expected 7.9% y/y last month provides further evidence that the latest plunge in the lira is hurting the economy. This reinforces our view that the... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ to step up pace of easing this month With the economy very likely now back in recession, an increase in monetary stimulus looks all but inevitable. Policymakers could announce more easing as soon as this week, but our base case remains... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Aug.) Wage growth slowed in August as the summer bonus season came to an end, underlining that the tight labour market has yet to generate noticeable cost pressures. 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
