Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting Turkey’s bank risks The IMF has put the vulnerabilities in the Turkish banking sector – which we have been warning about for several years – back into the spotlight. So far, there have been remarkably few signs of stress... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf likely to avoid bank liquidity crunch We think recent concerns that a withdrawal of government deposits from commercial banks will result in a liquidity crunch across the Gulf are overdone. Policymakers have plenty in their toolkit to... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What’s holding back gold? The price of gold has rallied, helped by the Fed’s reluctance to raise US interest rates, but still looks likely to end the year some way below January’s peak of around $1,300 per ounce. However, gold... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) The jump in Egyptian inflation to 9.2% y/y in September was driven almost entirely by a rise in the volatile food component. While we do expect inflation to fall back again, last month’s data mean an... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep.) September’s RICS survey painted a similar picture to that seen in recent months. But with house prices already so high, there were tentative signs that buyers are increasingly wary of responding to... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Aug.) & Hungary CPI (Sep.) The larger-than-expected rise in Turkish industrial production in August was encouraging, although given the more recent declines in business confidence, it’s not clear whether this will be sustained... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Sep.) Today’s Economy Watchers Survey supports other evidence that the economic recovery has run out of steam. 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Aug.) The third straight fall in machinery orders in August all but confirmed that non-residential investment contracted yet again in the third quarter. 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would a Brexit mean for the devolved regions? While we think that the overall UK economy would do well either inside or outside the European Union, a Brexit could still have some significant implications for the devolved regions – most obviously... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Stocks of both crude oil and gasoline rose again last week, helped by a fall in refinery utilisation and a small rebound in US oil production. 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy not falling off a cliff! Disappointing payrolls data from the US, weak commodity prices and another downbeat set of business surveys have fuelled fears that global growth is collapsing. However, we continue to think these... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update TPP impact on agricultural markets likely to be limited TPP is the largest trade deal to be negotiated for more than 20 years. But given the relatively small share of world imports of key agricultural commodities by the 12 signatories and many existing... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil prices start to recover, but coal prices tumble September was a relatively quiet month, at least for oil prices, as calm returned to Chinese equities. What’s more, oil has actually started to recover in early October as China fears subside further... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook One extreme to the other Having been too optimistic on the outlook for the emerging world over much of the past five years, the consensus has now shifted too far in the other direction. Economic and financial vulnerabilities... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Can tin prices continue to outperform? Tin prices have risen recently, defying the generally negative sentiment towards metals. As we move into 2016, we expect stronger growth in demand to lead to further price gains. 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
