Asia Economics Focus Can Malaysia ride out challenging times? Malaysia faces a number of challenges over the coming years, not least in adjusting to lower commodity prices. But there are reasons to think the economy will hold up relatively well and, while it is... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Sep.) While consumer sentiment deteriorated in September, the Bank of Japan will welcome that household inflation expectations did not weaken further. 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What can the RBI do to get banks to lower interest rates? Having cut the repo rate by 125bp this year, the RBI has shifted its focus to ensuring that banks pass on these rate reductions to borrowers. In truth, high levels of bad debt mean that the banking... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Sep.15) The small rise in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in September to just above zero maybe just about enough to prevent the Riksbank from loosening policy further at the end of this month. But we still... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC’s oil output rises, but supply elsewhere set to stall OPEC’s oil production rebounded a little last month, but slower growth in non-OPEC supplies and strong growth in demand should still help prices to rise over the next few years. 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update South Africa’s strikes to provide further boost to gold price While the Fed has been the biggest driver of gold prices recently, labour tensions in South Africa could provide a further boost. We believe that the gold market is already quite tight after prolonged... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising Brazilian soybean production to push prices lower Although the USDA has revised down its forecasts for this year’s US corn, wheat and soybean harvests, we think ample global supplies will push prices down over the remainder of the year. 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) The modest 1.0% y/y rise in Mexican industrial production masked the more encouraging 3.1% y/y increase in manufacturing output. But the bigger picture is that the sector remains weak. 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What role has the Syrian crisis played in lifting oil prices? The rebound in oil prices can largely be explained by an improvement in sentiment toward demand and mounting evidence of cuts in non-OPEC supply. Admittedly, the escalation of Russia’s military... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Industrial Production (Aug.) Indian consumer price inflation rose in September. Looking ahead, while theRBI’s inflation target for January 2016 isn’t under threat, meeting the medium term target will be difficult. Given this, we... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon defies gravity, for now… The conflict in Syria has taken a heavy toll on Lebanon’s economy over the past few years – the country is hosting more than a million refugees, the key tourism sector is suffering, and the political... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil Data (Sep.) September data released earlier today by Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board show that palm oil stocks rose to the highest monthly level on record. 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Digging deeper into China’s coal demand We think that the market is still underestimating the weakness in China’s demand for coal and expect prices to continue to fall over the next few years as this becomes more apparent. 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Foreign demand for Nordic assets buoyed by weak currencies Nordic investment activity has already surpassed 2014 levels as exchange rate weakness in the region has created improved perceived value for foreign investors. We expect foreign buyers to account for... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Emerging Asia set for recovery The jump in Egyptian inflation to 9.2% y/y in September was driven almost entirely by a rise in the volatile food component. While we do expect inflation to fall back again, last month’s data mean an... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
