Asia Economics Update Singapore unlikely to loosen policy again The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today opted to “reduce slightly” the slope of its target band for the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), which amounts to very modest loosening of its... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are bond investors wrong about the prospects for Fed policy? We expect the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate at 0.50% next week and retain its neutral stance on the rate outlook. The incoming data indicate that third-quarter GDP growth was stronger than... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How tight are conditions in the rental market? On the basis of past form, the fact the rental vacancy rate has hit a 30-year low would suggest rental growth is set to surge. But the drop in the vacancy rate is being exaggerated by a rise in the... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will new office development depress rental growth in Poland? The Polish regional cities are seeing strong demand from the BPO/SSC sectors. But the office space development pipeline has responded equally robustly. Therefore, although demand growth is set to... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Precious metals rally as sentiment improves The prices of precious metals (PMs) have rallied since mid-September, as sentiment towards commodities in general improved. While the Fed’s dovishness has been the biggest catalyst for changes in gold... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Treasuries remain vulnerable to a recalibration of rate expectations 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update How long can markets shrug off low stocks? For the most part, LME metal stocks have fallen since the start of September, in some cases to multi-year lows. However, concerns about demand continue to weigh on prices. We expect the low level of... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q3) 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q3) The Q3 Credit Conditions Survey reported the strongest pick-up in secured residential credit availability in two years. But at the same time, the availability of credit for the commercial sector... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Oct.) October’s German ZEW survey confirmed that concerns over the global environment and the scandal at Volkswagen are taking a toll on investor confidence, which might affect economic activity in the... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports surge in September While the headlines have focused on the weak value data, the pick-up in China’s industrial import volumes suggests that ongoing fiscal stimulus, notably infrastructure spending, and earlier price... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Sep.) Deflation returned to the UK in September. Although it is likely to be another very brief and shallow affair, this clearly puts the MPC under even less pressure than before to raise interest rates. 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Sep.) Although the strength of September’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor reflects some temporary factors, the underlying picture is good too. Robust earnings growth and high confidence should ensure the recovery... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Sep.) The small rise in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in September to just above zero may be just about enough to prevent the Riksbank from loosening policy further at the end of this month. But we still... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Global uncertainty adds to downside risks The European economy has performed relatively well over recent months amid financial market unrest and signs of a slowdown elsewhere. But the euro-zone’s exporters are still not benefitting from the... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Sep.) Stronger-than-expected export data hint at warming foreign demand. Meanwhile, we aren’t as concerned about domestic demand as some given that the contraction in imports values continues to mostly... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
