UK Commercial Property Update National Living Wage will have little impact on occupier demand The impact of the National Living Wage (NLW) will be largest in the retail, leisure and hotel sectors. But even there, increased labour market flexibility should ensure that its introduction has... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Sep.) The rate of house price inflation rose to 5.6% in September and the elevated sales-to-new listings ratio indicates that it will accelerate to 6.0% by the end of the year. The national average... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports show signs of bottoming out EM exports continued to fall sharply in August, but the early data for September provide some hope that the worst may now be over. The year-on-year pace of contraction in export values is likely to... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to expect from Egypt’s parliamentary elections Egyptians are scheduled to return to the polls this month to elect a new parliament, which is likely to emerge as a body that is largely aligned with President al-Sisi. As we explain in this Watch, in... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia likely to cut rates before end-2015 The recent rebound in the rupiah was never likely to be enough to persuade Bank Indonesia (BI) to loosen policy, and today’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 7.5% was no great surprise... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s labour recovery won’t stop Riksbank cutting The improvement in Sweden’s labour market in recent months has exceeded consensus expectations and those of the Riksbank. But conditions are still far from healthy and wage growth remains subdued... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities fight back Commodity prices have rebounded since the middle of September as fears about the Chinese economy have diminished. Many industrial commodities were also supported by talk of supply cuts, while precious... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) Broad credit growth accelerated to a nine-month high in September. Although this will add to concerns about the trajectory of Chinese debt levels, in the short-run it will nonetheless be supportive of... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Immigration won’t transform Germany’s growth outlook The influx of refugees into Germany has caused much speculation about the costs to the government and possible benefits to the economy. But while the trend presents opportunities for the long term, it... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea to keep rates on prolonged hold Against a backdrop of gradual recovery in the domestic economy, the Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.50% today. We expect the BoK to keep rates on hold for the... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bailout package for power sector would have limited impact A bailout for India’s heavily-indebted electricity providers would be a positive step, but there are reasons to doubt the effectiveness of any rescue deal. For a start, any package is likely to be... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) The doubling of the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet since the launch of QQE has contributed to a strong rise in the money supply and a pick-up in bank lending. With lending rates near record-lows, we... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Sep.) While the fall in employment in September is unlikely to significantly alter the RBA's view of the economy, we think that a sustained weakening in the labour market will contribute to the RBA cutting... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s labour recovery won’t stop Riksbank cutting The improvement in Sweden’s labour market in recent months has exceeded consensus expectations and those of the Riksbank. But conditions are still far from healthy and wage growth remains subdued... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French CPI (Sep.) Although France’s headline HICP inflation rate held above zero in September, today’s data revealed that price pressures remain exceptionally weak and will add to the growing pressure on the ECB to... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to be more guarded against global risks We expect the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate at 0.50% next week and retain its neutral stance on the rate outlook. The incoming data indicate that third-quarter GDP growth was stronger than... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
