UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Sep) Commercial property investment fell for a third consecutive month in September, recording its lowest level in 16 months. This is likely to be a signal that investor demand has returned to more normal... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Rising business confidence unlikely to convince BoC The Bank of Canada's third-quarter Business Outlook Survey showed that more businesses are betting on an improving US economy and a cheaper loonie to lift Canada’s economy out of its oil induced slump... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is the New Zealand dollar still overvalued? The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) is likely to update its estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) next month. We suspect that these will show that the New... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Energy prices beckon deflation’s return It is likely that CPI inflation turned negative in September, and should remain close to zero for most of the rest of this year. However, as weak price pressures are being driven largely by lower... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Further evidence that sentiment is bottoming out We do not expect the future paths to be smooth, but the rallies in commodity prices over the past week are consistent with the relatively positive views we have been expressing for some time. Indeed... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Outcome of TPP deal irrelevant for US outlook The big news last week was the announcement of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement between the US and 11 other countries, which aims to lower trade barriers and set common commercial... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update The turn is nigh (if it hasn’t already happened) We do not expect the future paths to be smooth, but the rallies in commodity prices over the past week are consistent with the relatively positive views we have been expressing for some time. We are... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How quickly is the world economy growing? We estimate that global GDP growth will slow to around 2½% this year, taking into account ourassessment of China’s actual growth rate. However, the world economy should recover in 2016 asactivity in... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly A Trans-Pacific Partnership deal wouldn’t improve outlook The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement, even if it was ratified soon, would be unlikely to improve Canada’s near-term economic prospects. The initial effects of the new trade agreement... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly German slowdown will force the ECB’s hand Last week’s news on the euro-zone brought the strongest signs yet that some parts of the currency union are starting to feel the effects of the deterioration in the international environment. In... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The labour market continued to withstand the oil shock in September, churning out a moderate gain of 12,100 jobs. This wasn’t enough, however, to prevent an increase in the unemployment rate to 7.1%... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investors start warming towards agriculturals again Cuts to production forecasts and other supply concerns have resulted in a sharp rise in the prices of a number of agricultural commodities since the beginning of September. In tandem, futures curves... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack New build sales finally making some headway The drop in mortgage rates towards the end of September has given mortgage applications a boost, as did the introduction of new disclosure requirements for mortgages as buyers acted early to avoid... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the recovery running out of steam? A raft of gloomy survey data has fuelled fears that the UK’s economic recovery is running out of steam. There are some indications that quarterly GDP growth will moderate from 0.7% in Q2 to 0.5% or so... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Better news from China only a reprieve The rebound we expect in China over the next few quarters should come as a relief to Australian policymakers and many investors. But long-run prospects for iron ore demand, which makes up more than... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
