US Chart Pack Impact of strong dollar to fade next year External deflationary pressure from the strong dollar and lower commodity prices will continue to keep both headline and core inflation unusually low in the shortterm . The strong dollar's downward... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s next Government will have its work cut out This weekend’s general election in Portugal looks set to be a close contest with a minority government currently appearing the most likely outcome. But whichever party ends up on top, it faces an... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Sep.) September’s EC business and consumer survey suggests that the economic recovery maintained its pace in Q3. But growth was still fairly slow and we think that the ECB will need to increase its stimulus... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Aug.) In net terms, bank lending to commercial property remained firmly in negative territory in August. In turn, that reflected continued caution on the part of lenders to finance new development. 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The declines in this month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators across much of Central and Eastern Europe were disappointing, particularly in light of the relatively impressive reading from Germany. But... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Aug.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase jumped to an 18 month high in August. While low rates and rising incomes should support mortgage demand, the lack of homes being put up for sale may curb lending... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Reality bites Growth in the Gulf economies has held up well this year, but policymakers cannot delay the adjustment to low oil prices much longer. Tighter fiscal policy looms. Large savings and low debt levels mean... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI front-loads policy loosening The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by 50bp today, to 6.75%, went beyond what most had expected. But having stated that its attention will now turn to its medium-term... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth slower, but not collapsing Emerging market (EM) growth has slowed further recently, but there is no sign of the collapse that some are talking about. In fact, there is tentative evidence that EM growth has begun to stabilise. 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Sep.) Despite a slight rebound in September, small business confidence still points to tepid gains in industrial output, and the moderation in price pressures is worrying. However, the Bank of Japan will... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q3) Vietnam’s economy recorded another quarter of healthy growth in Q3, and stands out as one of the few countries in the region that has shrugged off the global slowdown in trade. We expect it to remain... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch China concerns unlikely to prompt action Concerns over the health of China’s economy and the fall in domestic equity prices are unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates from 2.0% at the meeting on Tuesday... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real stabilises following sharp sell-off The good news is that the Brazilian real is no longer in freefall and appears to have stabilised at around 4.0/$ in recent days following verbal intervention by policymakers. We’re still taking a... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch How far will interest rates rise? The peak rate of interest in the next tightening cycle is likely to be lower than in the past. Indeed, we estimate that the so-called “neutral rate” is now only around 3% in the US and UK and... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency falls compound inflation troubles for some EMs While inflation in the EM world is low on average, there are big divergences. In particular, many of the economies already struggling with high inflation are also those that have seen their currencies... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Global headwinds, local responses batter markets African financial markets mostly performed poorly over the past month due to a combination of foreign shocks and botched domestic policy responses. We are increasingly worried about the risk of an... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
