Global Markets Update Fed hike still coming soon (which should be good news) Fed Chair Janet Yellen used a speech last night to send a pretty clear signal that US interest rates are still likely to be raised later this year, despite the hesitancy last week. This shouldn’t be a... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Political risk returns The downturn in regional economic growth and a raft of corruption scandals have dented presidential approval ratings across Latin America over the past year. This has marked the return of political... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch India’s new gold schemes not yet a game changer On 10th September the Indian parliament approved the launch of the Gold Monetisation Scheme (GMS) and the Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme (SGBS). The GMS and the SGBS have been introduced in an attempt to... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch housing recovery built on solid foundations The gradual recovery in the Dutch housing market looks set to continue, supported by rising realdisposable incomes, mortgage lending growth and government policy. This bodes well for bothhousehold... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Public finances should come good again soon Last week’s public finance figures suggested that deficit reduction has hit a roadblock. But the path of reduction has hardly been a completely smooth one so far. And the strong economic recovery in... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the VW scandal put the brakes on German growth? The news last week that Volkswagen had cheated emissions tests prompted speculation that “Made in Germany” branding had been dealt a blow that could seriously jeopardize the economy’s prospects. Given... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam – a rare bright spot At a time when growth in most of Emerging Asia is slowing, Vietnam stands out as one of the region’s few bright spots. Although we expect the country’s strong performance to continue over the next... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) August’s euro-zone monetary data point to low inflation and continued sluggish growth, adding to the evidence that more monetary stimulus from the ECB isnecessary. The run on Greek banks seems to have... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Credit conditions in Russia to remain tight for some time Credit conditions in Russia have tightened substantially over the past six months or so, with households and SMEs being particularly hard hit. We don’t expect a significant turnaround anytime soon... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update New “arrows” don’t change the outlook for Japan’s economy Prime Minister Abe’s announcement of new targets does not alter the outlook for the economy. In the absence of tangible policies to boost productivity and stem the decline in the working-age... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Clampdown on tertiary education is worrisome An onslaught on humanities and social sciences by the Ministry of Education threatens to undermine the competitiveness of Japan’s economy. Encouragingly, the country’s leading universities have... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rising housing wealth cushioning equity price fall While we remain more concerned than most about the Australian economy, the latest fall in equity prices won’t significantly restrain consumption growth. There is plenty of scope for households to... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) While the Bank of Japan’s preferred inflation gauge turned negative last month, the rebound in “core-core” inflation bolsters policymakers’ upbeat outlook. But with the economy struggling to return to... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Euro-zone peripheral government bonds remain vulnerable The rise in sovereign credit spreads in the euro-zone since the spring has partly reflected concerns about the implications of the slowdown in China and US monetary policy, rather than just specific... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Domestic strength counters external weakness GDP growth is now on track for a solid 2.5% gain in 2015. We had previously anticipated that growth would accelerate to nearer 3.0% in 2016 but, given the weakness of global demand and the dollar’s... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit & the City: Long-run benefits may justify upfront cost A British exit from the EU would probably hurt the City in the short term, but it would not spelldisaster. The City’s competitive advantage is founded on more than just unfettered access to thesingle... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
