Asia Economics Focus The Philippines needs to invest more Economic growth across large parts of Emerging Asia has slowed over the past couple of years. One important exception to this trend is the Philippines, where a strong recent performance has raised... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The modest 0.2% m/m gain in retail sales volumes in July, together with the slight downward revised figures for June, suggest that the pace of consumer spending growth slowed in the third quarter... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Further changes to China’s corn policy are likely The proposal to cut the price paid to China’s corn farmers for state stockholding purchases is unlikely to be sufficient to tackle the country’s growing corn stocks. Indeed, we think further reforms... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Copenhagen retail rents buoyed by the tourist dollar The combination of strong growth in tourism and rapid population growth has driven up retail rental values in the Danish capital. We believe these factors will support further strong demand for prime... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central & South Eastern Europe a rare EM bright spot Emerging Europe remains a region of two halves. Its two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – will continue to struggle over the coming years as cyclical downturns compound long-standing structural... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China & Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) Today’s weak manufacturing PMI reading from China has contributed to the negative sentiment towards commodities, but the data are not as disastrous as some of the headlines have implied. The euro-zone... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) September’s dip in the euro-zone composite PMI left it pointing to steady GDP growth in Q3. But the uncertain global environment and fading boosts from thelower oil price and weaker euro look set to... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.) Inflation in South Africa fell to 4.6% y/y in August, below our expectations and those of other analysts. We still expect the SARB to hike interest rates later today, but today’s CPI figure means that... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Algeria: low oil prices force authorities into action Algeria was ill-prepared to confront a period of low oil prices and, as we warned might happen, the authorities have reacted by letting the dinar weaken, while a sharp fiscal squeeze is now on the... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) Today’s weaker-than-expected PMI will add to mounting concerns over Chinese growth. That said, Caixin’s manufacturing PMI has not provided a particularly good reading of the health of the broader... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Time to worry about a weak rupiah? The Indonesian rupiah has fallen again over the past week, hitting a fresh 17-year low against the US dollar. The sharp drop in the currency, which is down by a cumulative 33% since the start of 2013... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update We don’t expect very low Treasury yields to last A decline in the equilibrium level of the federal funds rate provides some justification for lower long-term US Treasury yields today than on average in the past. But a large decline in the... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Currency sell-off takes its toll on Russia and Turkey The Russian ruble and Turkish lira have been among the hardest hit EM currencies this quarter and this has already started to feed through into the real economy. Inflation is on the rise (again)... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s import data show some areas of strength The latest data on China’s imports and exports do not paint a picture of a slump in domestic demand. But there are nuances, with imports of some metals holding up better than others. 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rates on hold, Emefiele doubles down The Central Bank of Nigeria kept its key interest rate on hold today, while its embattled governor reiterated his support for controversial FX policies in the face of growing criticism. An overdue cut... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
