Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Aug.) According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminium output grew by over 10%y/y in August. But excluding China, output rose by a mere 2% y/y. 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Sep.) Our Argentina Activity indicator (AAI) suggests that the economy grew in Q2 for the first time since 2013. However, this appears to have been due largely to an aggressive loosening of fiscal policy... 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Election result does not address Greece’s biggest challenge While the result of Greece’s election strengthens the Syriza-led government’s mandate to implement the country’s third bailout, the major challenge for both Greece and its creditors – to find a... 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Markets raise expectations of further loosening The weakness of inflation over the past couple of months, combined with the inaction of the US Fed, has prompted India’s financial markets to raise expectations of another cut in interest rates next... 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus When will the BoJ have to start tapering its JGB purchases? We estimate that QQE can continue for at least another five years even if the Bank of Japan steps up the annual pace of expansion of the monetary base to ¥90 trillion in October. As such, the fate of... 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Dollar debt not the reason for the Fed's caution The latest US financial accounts show that the Fed’s reluctance to raise interest rates from near-zero is not because the central bank fears that it could trigger a debt crisis, either in the US or in... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Flagging up the risks to copper mine supply The earthquake that hit Chile yesterday served as a reminder of the vulnerability of the copper market to disrupted mine output from key producing countries. With El Niño underway, persistent strike... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy not out of the woods Although the majority of forecasters have downgraded their forecasts substantially for GDP growth this year, most remain overly optimistic about the underlying strength in the economy. The economy... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Gold one of the few beneficiaries of Fed’s hesitancy Commodity markets initially welcomed the US central bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday, but the mood soon cooled. Indeed, the Fed’s hesitancy only appears to have reinforced... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed fooling itself if it thinks uncertainty will ever clear The more the Fed procrastinates, the more we get the feeling that officials are fooling themselves into thinking that, if they only just wait a little longer, all the uncertainty will clear up and... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The unchanged 1.3% annual headline inflation rate in August and the drop in core inflation to 2.1%, from 2.4%, are in line with the Bank of Canada’s assumptions, so they won’t change its neutral view... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Five key numbers for crude oil markets The oil market is inundated with thousands of different statistics regarding production, consumption and trade on a daily basis. In this Update we pick five figures which we consider to be the most... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How much has the fall in mortgage rates supported affordability? Over the past year, falling mortgage interest rates appear to have reduced monthly mortgage payments by more than rising house prices have increased them. This may be one reason why prices have... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Faster wage growth unlikely to panic MPC Although the US Fed kept interest rates on Thursday, a rate rise across the pond is not far away. And on the face of it, the pick-up in UK pay growth revealed last week suggested that the Bank of... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Fannie Mae launches new housing sentiment indicator The new Home Purchase Sentiment Index from Fannie Mae has a good track record in forecasting measures of housing market activity. While future performance may not be as impressive, the drop in... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
