Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold as franc weakens, but may yet cut again The recent depreciation of the Swiss franc and renewed increase in economic activity has allowed the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to keep policy on hold for the time being. But we think that renewed... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM debt: Where do the risks lie? The decision by S&P to downgrade Brazil’s sovereign debt rating to junk last week has refocused attention on EM debt burdens. As it happens, we have been warned about rising debt levels in Brazil for... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A relatively quiet end to summer Although the main commodity indices weakened further since mid-August, given the mid-summer volatility it has been a relativity calm last few weeks. Attention has now turned back to the US Fed... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Staying in tune with stock market valuation With the debate about the valuation of the US stock market continuing to rage, one factor which is often overlooked is the importance of choosing the correct long-term average with which to compare... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Fed tightening and the relative prospects for DM equities 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s report was full of surprises with crude oil stocks falling and gasoline stock surging. However, this was mainly driven by the return of some refineries from unexpected maintenance. 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The 0.1% m/m decline in headline CPI inflation in August was partly due to the renewed decline in gasoline prices, but even core prices increased by only 0.1% m/m, suggesting that underlying inflation... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM industry in the doldrums Industrial production growth in the emerging world remains very weak, with our aggregate measure of EM industrial output expanding by just 2.2% y/y in the three months to July – the slowest pace since... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: New sales figures, same grim story Statistics South Africa has updated its calculations of retail sales figures, but the new data still paint a pretty miserable picture. Our GDP tracker suggests that the South African economy stagnated... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q2) We would be wary of reading too much into today’s GDP figures from Sri Lanka,which suggest the economy accelerated sharply in the second quarter. The country’s statistical office has recently rebased... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Brexit wouldn't spell disaster for UK exports Over the next few weeks, we will be publishing a series of pieces of work looking at the impact that leaving the EU would have on the UK economy, culminating in a presentation at our annual conference... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank likely to cut its policy rate next week The likelihood that inflation will soon fall, as well as signs that Norway’s economy has continued to slow in Q3, is likely to prompt the Norges Bank to loosen policy again next week. 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Run-up to Bihar election a bellwether for reform appetite India’s increasingly decentralised system means that state elections such as the upcoming vote in Bihar have a bearing on economic policy. Perhaps more significant, the need to campaign at the local... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Jul./Aug.) The latest labour market statistics confirmed that the recent slowdown in the pace of the jobs recovery was only temporary. However, we don’t think that this will prompt the MPC to hike rates soon. 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment data (Q2/July) After disappointing in May and June, job creation staged a recovery in July. The data offered further evidence that demand for office space should be comparatively strong, and that the demand for... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What to expect from EM markets when the Fed pushes the button We still think there is a good chance that US interest rates will be raised tomorrow. But whether “liftoff” is this week or later, emerging market assets and currencies are unlikely to go into... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
