Industrial Metals Update Stocks tell a broadly positive story on demand Falling official stocks are painting a much stronger picture of metals’ demand than current prices. Inventories of some metals, notably tin and lead, offer little in the way of a cushion if supply... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation set to rebound An increase in headline inflation is now “baked in the cake” for most economies. The effects of last year’s oil price slump are set to drop out of the annual comparison in the coming months and fears... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Sep.) September’s ZEW survey confirmed that recent market turmoil and concerns over the global environment have had an adverse impact on German investor confidence. For now, though, the economy itself... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jul.) & Employment (Q2) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus rose to a record high in July, adding to the evidence that the economy got off to a good start in Q3. But we suspect that the trade surplus will fall in the second... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Aug.) UK inflation is still bouncing around zero and is likely to remain there for most of the rest of this year. This period of virtually no inflation is a good thing for the UK, as it is giving a welcome... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fed rate hikes take a backseat to low oil prices in the Gulf The Gulf’s commitment to dollar pegs mean that rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve will be imported to the region, adding to the headwinds facing economic growth. But this is a secondary concern... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q2) Data released this morning showed that South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed to 3.1% of GDP in Q2. While this is welcome news, a more detailed look at the figures highlight the economy’s... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Case for more BoJ stimulus increasingly compelling While the Bank of Japan stuck to its course today, as expected, lacklustre economic growth, a marked lack of wage pressure and falling inflation expectations are likely to force the Board to announce... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Will Asia follow the Fed? The first rate hike in the US looks set to take place sooner rather than later. But local factors, not theactions of the US Federal Reserve, will determine the next moves by Asia’s central banks. 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Another look at the EM export slowdown Much of the gloom currently hanging over the EM world is warranted, but there are reasons to think that the slump in exports, at least, will start to reverse toward the end of this year. That said... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The weakness of consumer price inflation in August should be the clinching factor in determining whether or not the Reserve Bank cuts interest rates at its meeting later this month. 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Gold proves resilient despite upcoming US rate hike The prices of precious metals (PMs) have fallen since mid-August as sentiment towards commodities in general continued to worsen, although performance was mixed. A further slump in Chinese equities... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Aug.) The rate of house price inflation rose to 5.4% in August and the elevated sales-to-new listings ratio indicates that it will accelerate to 6.0% before year end. The national average continues to be... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Global corn & soybean inventories cut, but still no shortage The price of corn rallied late last week as the USDA cut its estimates of the US corn yield and global end-year stocks. But with high inventories likely to endure, we think prices will end the year... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Exports also hit by commodity price falls It is widely understood that the value of China’s imports has been pulled down by falling commodity prices. Less well appreciated is that lower commodity prices also explain in large part why China’s... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
