Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q2) Ireland’s impressive recovery continued in Q2. And with the conditions in place for sustained rapid growth, it is set to remain the euro-zone’s fastest-growing economy. 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Jul.) South Africa PGM production fell in July below the levels observed in 2012 and 2013 at this time of the year. Low prices are threatening miners’ profitability. As such, we expect production growth to... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Survey & Halifax House Prices (Aug.) The Halifax reported a 2.7% m/m surge in house prices during August, more than reversing July’s dip. But with the price of a house growing at over three times faster than wages, we don’t think that... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil downgraded, fiscal mess deepens There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil Data (Aug.) Data released earlier today by Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board show that crude palm oil production in August was the highest on record. Stocks also rose sharply again. 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt & Saudi Arabia CPI (Aug.) A further drop in Egyptian inflation in August to 7.9% y/y, its lowest rate in more than two years, means that an interest rate cut at this month’s MPC meeting is looking increasingly likely... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Tourism’s strength to support hotel values Visitor numbers to the UK recently reached record levels, an encouraging development for the UK hotel sector. But spending by overseas visitors was less buoyant, suggesting that prime retail and... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Emerging Europe Data Response The sharp pick-up in Turkish GDP growth in Q2, to 3.8% y/y, provides some rare good news for the economy. However, we think this is likely to be temporary and higher inflation and tighter monetary... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Aug.) Another healthy gain in employment in August, as well as a slight fall in the unemployment rate, continued the strong run of Australia’s labour market. The slowdown in GDP growth this year may still... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) Producer price deflation deepened last month on the back of a softening in global commodity prices. But the stronger-than-expected pick-up in consumer prices still supports our view that domestic... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Headwinds to QQE are intensifying Economic activity continues to languish, and the tight labour market has failed to generate broad-based wage gains. With renewed falls in crude oil prices undermining the Bank’s attempts to lift... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jul.) The renewed decline in machinery orders in July suggests that business investment may fall yet again this quarter. 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Another step on the way down to rates of 2.0% The most important part of today’s policy announcement by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is not the third consecutive 0.25% cut in interest rates, to 2.75%, but the Bank’s growing acceptance that a... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazil Sugar Production (16th Aug. – 1st Sep.) Data released today by Brazil’s Sugarcane Industry Association, UNICA, revealed that the amount of sugar cane harvested in Brazil’s main sugar producing South-Central region in the second half of... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How vulnerable are Treasuries to waning Chinese demand? We don’t see the possibility of China running down its foreign exchange reserves in attempts to support the renminbi as a significant risk to US Treasuries. The links between Chinese demand for... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will commodity exporters continue to weigh on global growth? Fears about the health of the world economy have centred on China, but the bulk of the slowdown over the past year has actually been due to weaker growth in commodity exporters. The outlook varies by... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
