Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Aug.) Today’s Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) suggests that the economy is still struggling to recover from Q2’s slump. 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Favourable base effects will soon fade Inflation is likely to have edged down in August, due in large part to favourable base effects caused by the spike in food prices a year ago. But these effects are soon likely to fade, which will push... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q2 Revised) & Current Account (Jul.) While the economy shrank by slightly less last quarter than initially estimated, the first data for Q3 suggest that a rapid recovery in the second half of the year is not on the cards. 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update US natural gas prices set to recover Persistently low prices mean that we have revised down our end-2015 and end-2016 forecasts for the price of US natural gas. However, we still expect prices to rise substantially over the next few... 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile IMACEC (Jul.) The stronger-than-expected increase in Chile’s IMACEC activity indicator in July was encouraging, even more so given that activity was affected by strike action at state owned mining company, Codelco... 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital outflows not as large as doom mongers feared Capital outflows from China have picked up since last month’s botched currency reforms but by less than many had feared. Our view, in any case, is that outflows don’t pose as big a threat to China’s... 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has internal devaluation worked for Ireland? Since the financial crisis, internal devaluation appears to have provided only a modest boost to Ireland’s trade balance. More important to the economic recovery has been the pick-up in domestic... 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa’s much-touted “rise” stalls in 2015 A combination of low commodity prices and domestic weaknesses will drag growth in Sub-Saharan Africa down to around 3.3% this year, a very grim figure for a region often touted as the “next China”. 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How large is Saudi Arabia’s fiscal buffer? With oil prices still languishing at multi-year lows, Saudi Arabia’s budget position – which looks set to post a shortfall of close to 20% of GDP this year – has come under increasing scrutiny in... 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jul.) July’s German industrial production figures revealed a smaller than expected rebound after June’s decline and put an early dent in hopes of a re-acceleration in growth in the third quarter. 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we worry about “Corbynomics”? If the polls are anything to go by, left-leaning Jeremy Corbyn will be elected as the next leader of the Labour Party on 12 th of September. This has prompted a heated debate over his economic... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Advanced economies looking resilient We expect developed economies to weather the fallout from China’s August “devaluation” and the subsequent weakness in world equity markets quite well. Activity in the emerging world has slowed further... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Better news from China to outweigh first Fed hike The prices of key industrial commodities, notably oil, have been relatively calm in the last few days, helped by the holidays that closed China’s equity markets. Nonetheless, the robust US employment... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Some cautionary thoughts on June’s GDP The widely talked about 0.5% m/m gain in June’s GDP doesn’t convince us that the economy is on the path to recovery. Close examination of the data reveals that nearly half of this growth was due to... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
