India Economics Update India is not the new China The raft of comments and media reports arguing that India is set to become the new engine of global growth following the recent struggles in China were given more fuel earlier this week with the... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jul.) & Final PMIs (Aug.) The rise in euro-zone retail sales in July more than offset the decline in June and suggests that the consumer recovery remains on track. Meanwhile, the final PMIs highlighted the continued poor... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank still has more work to do The decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to leave its monetary policy stance unchanged suggested that it has been reassured by the recent run of better-than-expected activity and inflation data. But with... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Aug.) August’s ‘whole economy’ PMIs suggest that the slump that the surveys had been pointing to in recent months has now reversed. Similarly, there is early evidence that Egypt’s economy may have turned... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Aug.) Headline rate The rise in Turkish inflation, to 7.1% y/y last month, provided the first hard evidence that the latest fall in the lira has started to push up price pressures. We expect inflation to rise further... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank still has more work to do The decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to leave its monetary policy stance unchanged suggested that it has been reassured by the recent run of better-than-expected activity and inflation data. But with... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks rose last week due to a combination of lower refinery inputs and higher imports, which was only partially offset by lower production 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China’s imports of gold recover as local equities lose their appeal Mainland China’s gold imports from Hong Kong and Switzerland recovered in July after a weak June. We expect total imports by China and India to pick up in the second half of the year as low prices and... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC sounds dovish as commodity prices fall, data soften Having left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.50% earlier today, the Polish MPC struck a relatively dovish note at the post-meeting press conference, reinforcing our view that monetary policy... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Market panic on China uncertainty surely overdone At face value the recent weakness in commodity prices, culminating in August’s slump, is consistent with a global recession almost as severe as that in 2008-09. Investor sentiment towards the sector... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation dangers still lingering While the crisis in Greece appears to have receded at least temporarily, the euro-zone still faces serious challenges in the form of weak growth and persistent deflation risks. As the Chart below... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) The drop in interest rates triggered by the market turmoil of the past couple of weeks has given a boost to refinancing activity. Applications for home purchase have been more sluggish, but with... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jul.) July’s dire industrial production data from Brazil suggest that the economy has made a terrible start to Q3 and are an ominous first sign that the country’s recession will extend into the second half... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we too conservative on the prospects for Swedish retail rents? The Swedish consumer sector is set to perform strongly in the coming years. However, the completion of the Mall of Scandinavia later this year will keep prime retail rental growth in Stockholm muted... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will corporate debt be the source of the next EM crisis? We think emerging market (EM) dollar-denominated corporate bonds will perform poorly over the coming years, but we do not agree with suggestions that they will be the source of an imminent EM crisis... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
