Precious Metals Update Gold and silver to end the year on the up The price of gold is vulnerable to one last dip if, as we anticipate, the Fed presses ahead with a first hike in US interest rates soon. We have reflected this risk in our end-Q3 forecast of $1,050... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jul.) & Final Mfg PMI (Aug.) The latest euro-zone unemployment data offered hope that the slow recovery in the region’s labour market has not gone into reverse. But the bigger picture is that unemployment remains too high to... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (July) July’s dip in net lending to commercial property does not imply that credit for property acquisition or development is unavailable. But the data do suggest that lenders remain relatively cautious... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jul.) Mortgage lending rose in July, as low mortgage rates and a strengthening economy boosted housing demand. But there is still a long way to go before lending can be considered to have recovered fully... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI last month provides yet further evidence of economic weakness. Perhaps the best that can be said is that the manufacturing sector’s performance so far in... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Aug.) & Money and Credit (Jul.) August’s Markit/CIPS report on manufacturing showed that the strong pound is crimping exporters and so suggests that the major support net trade provided to GDP growth in Q2 will be a blip. But there... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Five reasons why we’re upbeat on the outlook for Morocco After a difficult few years, the outlook for Morocco is finally brightening. We think the country could be one of the best performing economies in the emerging world over the coming years. 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is Bank Indonesia too soft on inflation? Bank Indonesia’s poor record in meeting its inflation target has led to claims that it is being too soft on inflation. We believe such claims are wrong, and continue to think inflation will drop back... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) August’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe were generally weak, with almost all the headline figures dropping from July. The decline in the Polish survey was the most disappointing of the lot... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) India’s manufacturing PMI edged down in August, highlighting that conditions are still subdued by past standards. Looking ahead, with progress on creating a favourable business environment remaining... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may yet have to change tack on rates While the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% for the fourth meeting in row suggests that the chances of further rate cuts have faded further, we still... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) Emerging Asia's PMIs remained weak in August, suggesting the region’s manufacturing sectors continue to struggle. In the three economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, the surveys... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) Today's PMI readings suggest that industrial activity softened in August, but the weakness should be temporary and there are good reasons to expect a rebound in coming months. 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Expenditure (Q2)-2015 The Ministry of Finance’s survey on corporate finances suggests that the economy shrank by even more last quarter than initially estimated. 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q2) At face value, today’s GDP figures for Q2 suggest that India matched China as the world's fastest-growing major economy last quarter. But the GDP data remain inconsistent with numerous other... 31st August 2015 · 1 min read
