Japan Chart Pack Wage growth remains the missing link The Bank of Japan’s efforts to lift inflation to 2% continue to face a number of headwinds. Spare capacity widened last quarter as output dropped, oil prices have fallen to fresh lows, and market... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jul.) The rebound in bonus payments in July was far too modest to prevent a drop in this year’s summer bonuses. With the tight labour market failing to create strong wage gains, the Bank of Japan still has... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian dollar has yet to find a floor Our view that the annual rate of GDP growth in Australia will slow further in the second half of the year suggests that the Australian dollar may yet weaken from its current six-and-a-half-year low of... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's fiscal mess goes from bad to worse The move by Brazil’s government to yet again lower its fiscal targets for 2016 means that its projections for the public finances are finally starting to look realistic. But at the same time, they... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should the G20 be so worried about global growth? The IMF’s call for central bankers to refrain from tightening policy may have fuelled fears that the world is on the brink of a major downturn. We think the picture is not so gloomy. Emerging... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Int. Trade (Jul.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Aug.) The struggles of the export-orientated manufacturing sector, which has been hit by the dollar’s surge and the weakness of global demand, have been getting most of the attention this week, but today's... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi paves way for more QE While the European Central Bank (ECB) left its key policy instruments unchanged today, changes to its bond purchase limits and President Mario Draghi’s dovish signals appeared to pave the way for an... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank unlikely to cut rates next week We expect the Bank of Canada to hold rates at 0.50% at next week’s policy meeting and provide few indications that additional cuts will be needed this year. Nevertheless, we still think that a third... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jul.) The narrowing of the trade deficit in July indicates that the economy began the third quarter on a solid footing. This supports our view that, after suffering a mild recession in the first half of the... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Resurgence in exports unlikely to last The UK economy fired on all cylinders in Q2, with investment and net trade both providing considerable support to GDP growth. However, exports look set for a relapse soon. 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Market turmoil to reinforce MPC’s dovish stance Last month’s MPC minutes and Inflation Report suggested that the Committee was in less of a hurry to raise rates than many had thought. And the recent market turmoil and commodity price falls are only... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s economic struggles to continue Thailand’s economy started the second half of 2015 on a weak note, and while the recently announced fiscal stimulus package should help support demand, it is unlikely to be a game-changer. Rising... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Heading down to 2% The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is all but guaranteed to cut interest rates by 0.25% for the third meeting in a row, from 3.00% to 2.75%, on Thursday 10th September. We wouldn’t completely rule... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Cost of Nigerian FX restrictions becoming increasingly clear On the face of it, Nigeria’s restrictions on access to foreign currency have been quite successful at stabilising the naira and the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves. However, the adverse... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Aug.) The fall in August’s Markit/CIPS report on services will add to concerns about the sustainability of the recovery following the deterioration in the manufacturing survey already released. But we doubt... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
