Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada stands pat for now The Bank of Canada’s decision to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.50% today was largely as expected given that the economy apparently returned to positive growth in June. But we still... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) Mexican inflation continued to buck the regional trend in August, falling for a tenth consecutive month, to 2.6% y/y. With the headline rate falling further below target, and the peso stabilising... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Which EM currencies will suffer in the event of more capital flight? 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s unemployment puzzle With the Russian economy in a deep recession, the fact that the unemployment rate has remained at historic lows is puzzling. As we explain in this Watch, one explanation may be that large firms –... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Balance of Payments (FY 2014/15) The whopping increase in Egypt’s current account deficit in the last fiscal year is likely to grab the headlines. But there is more to this than meets the eye. It largelyreflects an accounting issue... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) Mexican inflation continued to buck the regional trend in August, falling for a tenth consecutive month, to 2.6% y/y. With the headline rate falling further below target, and the peso stabilising... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Surge in sales leads to tighter market conditions Housing market activity on most measures has seen further gains. Existing home sales rose unexpectedly in July, and are now up 16% since the start of the year. And while starts were essentially flat... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Odds of a September rate hike are 50-50 The odds of the Fed hiking interest rates at next week’s FOMC meeting, which concludes on Thursday, are close to 50-50. The cumulative improvement in the economy over the past few years means that it... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Index exclusion another symbolic blow The expulsion of Nigeria from JPMorgan’s GBI-EM bond index will have little practical impact on Africa’s largest economy. But the move is an embarrassing blow to the Nigerian government’s economic... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response World Gold Official Reserves (Jul.) Buying by global central banks picked up pace in July, with China and Russia once again particularly active. Going forward, we expect further official purchases to be one of several factors supporting... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Which EM currencies are most vulnerable to snap sell-offs? Our Currency Vulnerability Index (Curvi) suggests that the Brazilian real, Turkish lira, South African rand and Colombian peso remain the most exposed emerging market (EM) currencies to snap sell-offs... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is it too late to invest in Amsterdam offices? Improving prospects for occupier demand and low vacancy in the Zuidas submarket mean the outlook for prime Amsterdam offices has strengthened. If our forecasts prove correct, total returns in the 2016... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Jul.) July’s industrial production and trade figures highlight that the strength of the pound and weakness in demand in key export markets held back the recovery in the manufacturing sector at the beginning... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Central London prices slow substantially There are tentative signs that London house prices are approaching a plateau. Boroughs that have seen the biggest price increases since the crisis now report the most subdued rates of price growth and... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GST deadline unlikely to be met The long-awaited implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in India could bring significant benefits to the economy. But a decade after it was first proposed, there are still a number of... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Aug.) The fall in Czech inflation in August, to 0.3% y/y, was driven largely by steeper falls in food and energy prices and, as a result, shouldn’t raise too many concerns about the risk of deflation... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
