Africa Economics Update Ghana hikes rates amid currency concerns The surprise 100bp rate hike, to 25.0%, by the Bank of Ghana today appears to have been aimed at shoring up the cedi, particularly in light of the US FOMC meeting later this week. We expect monetary... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities are still low The rise in India’s current account deficit in Q2 was due in large part to seasonal patterns. The important point from a wider perspective is that the deficit remains small. This, combined with the... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.) July’s rise in industrial production merely offset the declines in the previous two months, so is not the beginning of a stronger upward trend in the sector. The survey evidence points to fairly... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response US silver imports and exports (Jun.) US silver imports rose in June after a weak May, but exports of semi-manufactured silver slumped, suggesting weak industrial demand from the rest of the world. Meanwhile, retail appetite for physical... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Aug.) Wholesale price inflation dropped sharply in August to its lowest rate since the series began. The WPI rate may not have as much of a bearing on policymaking as the CPI rate, but the fact that it has... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan’s central bank has lost sight of the medium term The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) responded to the latest fall in headline inflation by cutting interest rates again over the weekend. The SBP’s aggressive series of rate cuts during the last year... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Aug) The weakness in August comes as no surprise, at least to us, given the disruptions to activity last month as a result of the Victory Day parade preparations and Tianjin blast. The bigger picture is... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly First Fed hike unlikely to be a game-changer A recovery in sentiment toward the Chinese economy lifted the prices of key industrial metals in the past week, although oil suffered from fears of further over-supply following the lifting of... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Additional rate cut still seems like a good bet The Bank of Canada’s decision to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.5% last week was largely as expected in light of the recent news that the real economy returned to growth in June... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Conf. (Sep.) & Producer Prices (Aug.) Although the slump in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index to a 12-month low of 85.7 in September, from 91.9, left it well below the consensus forecast at 91.1 it was almost exactly in... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What next for oil prices? The easing of sanctions on Iran will add to the supply of oil on world markets, but it should not be the game-changer for prices that some imagine. Instead, we think the more important factors will be... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will Fed lift-off hit or help the euro-zone? We don’t expect the prospect of higher US interest rates to hit the euro-zone too hard. But the ECB should not take any chances and certainly should not rely on higher US interest rates to lower the... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.) Mexican industrial production data for July were a little stronger-than-expected. But even so, the figures suggest that the economy remained weak at the start of Q3. 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Remaining labour market slack rapidly shrinking The decline in the unemployment rate to only 5.1% in August means that the Fed has arguably already achieved the full employment part of its dual mandate. If there is still any slack left in thel... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s MPC keeps rates on hold due to ruble weakness Today’s decision by the Russian central bank to keep interest rates on hold at 11.00% having cut rates at each of its previous meetings this year, clearly reflects policymakers’ concerns about the... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
