US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Aug.) As expected, the disruption caused by the expiry of a tax-break in New York led to a drop in housing starts in August. But with homebuilder confidence elevated and building permits already recovering... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment & Industrial Production (Aug.) Rosstat’s monthly raft of activity data showed that the Russian economy continued to contract in August at a pace of around 4.5-5.0% y/y. However, the figures provide the first signs that the pace at... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Manufacturing now faces an even greater challenge Despite the rebound in sales volumes over the summer, Canada’s export-orientated manufacturing sector has struggled repeatedly to sustain any gains in over the past two years or so. Even though US... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Praiseworthy reform prompts embarrassing own goal The creation of a Treasury Single Account for Nigeria’s federal government is a sensible step, but poor implementation has sparked an entirely avoidable liquidity freeze. While the Central Bank has... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Aug.) August’s Polish activity data were generally a little weaker-than-expected, but even so it looks like the economy continued to grow at a robust pace of around 3.5% y/y in Q3. At the margin, these data... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage market competition moves up a gear A number of recent developments suggest that, after a protracted period of uncertainty, confidence amongst mortgage lenders is starting to improve again. If this is sustained, the improvement in... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Low interest rates and debt-to-income ratios suggest that Japan’s households and firms can continue to borrow as strongly as they have in recent months. 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Should property investors be worried about the elections in Spain? Both the regional election in Catalonia later this month, and the general election in December, represent a risk for property investors in Spain. Yet there are a number of reasons to believe that the... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Policies to promote FDI are paying dividends Measures taken by the government to encourage foreign direct investment into India are showing signs of success. Net FDI inflows rose last quarter to their highest level as a share of GDP since Q4... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia rate cut likely by end of the year With the Fed possibly poised to hike interest rates later in the day, Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to keep its key policy rate on hold at 7.5% was no great surprise. Going forward, with inflation... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) August’s retail sales figures showed that the pace of spending growth on the high street has remained fairly feeble so far this quarter. But we doubt that this signals a more widespread slowdown in... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB on hold as franc weakens, but may yet cut again The recent depreciation of the Swiss franc and renewed increase in economic activity has allowed the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to keep policy on hold for the time being. But we think that renewed... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q2) The disappointingly soft rebound in GDP in the second quarter supports our below consensus forecasts that the economy will grow by just 2.0% this year and that the RBNZ will cut interest rates from 2... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is the end of the City office rental upswing in sight? Experience suggests that shifts in demand, rather than supply, tend to act as the trigger for major rental value downturns. So, although the London office development pipeline has surged and is... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Does State intervention in equity markets really work? Earlier this week the Malaysian authorities joined their Chinese counterparts in intervening in the equity market, but there is little evidence that such policies are effective. Global pressures will... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Aug.) Today’s trade data suggest that net trade remained a drag on GDP growth in Q3. 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
